Alfred WANG 編譯


Long shots for 2009
兩千零九的大膽預言
The unlikely, but possible, turn of events
看似天方夜譚，但有可能實現

The Middle East is not the only region with tempting or troubling longshots. Will a settlement, for example, at last be reached for theconflict, now more than three decades long, between Morocco and the Algeria-backed Polisario in the Western Sahara? With good luck, andcontinued good will by Pakistan’s President, India and Pakistan will befully reconciled. With bad luck, of which there is always plenty in theregion, Mr. Zardari is ousted (perhaps by military men sympathetic toAfghanistan’s Taliban) and the two countries clash violently yet againover Kashmir.
憂喜參半的未來，不是只有在中東地區發生而已。舉例來說，背後有阿爾及利亞撐腰的西撒哈拉獨立陣線(Polisario)，該組織與摩洛哥在西撒哈拉長達三十年之久的對立，最後能否劃下句點呢？至於印度與巴基斯坦，如果運氣好一點，再加上巴基斯坦總統釋出善意，最後可望解決。然而，這一帶時常傳出壞消息，若運氣差了一點，巴基斯坦總統扎爾達里(Zardari)先生有可能遭驅逐出境（可能由支持阿富汗塔利班的民兵所為），印巴兩國將再次針對喀什米爾問題起激烈衝突。

One long shot for East Asia would be the collapse of North Korea,leading to a hugely challenging – and costly – reunification of thepeninsula. Another would be a successful military coup in thePhilippines, after so many failed ones.
有關遠東的預測，大概就是北韓瓦解，引發朝鮮半島統一的巨大挑戰（也將付出龐大的金錢代價）。除此之外，另一則預言是菲律賓在經過次失敗的軍事政變以後，會有一場政變成功推翻政府。

(中略)

As the memory of September 11th 2001 fades, the odds of a terroristatrocity in America may seem to have lengthened – but the risk remainsreal. Capturing or killing Osama bin Laden has become a long shot (in2002 the odds were much shorter). Following cyber-attacks on Estonianwebsites in 2007, the odds on cyber-terrorism – perhaps by governments– are shortening. One nasty thought is that the internet will clog up,unable to cope with the increased traffic of a wired world.
隨著對九一一事件的記憶逐漸模糊，針對美國發動恐怖暴行的機率將會縮小，但帶來的衝擊仍是貨真價實。能否將賓拉登繩之以法或施以死亡制裁，將成為觀察的重點(在2002年這樣的機會微乎其微)。繼2007年愛沙尼亞(Estonia)的網站遭到攻擊以後，網路恐怖攻擊──可能由政府主導──發生的機率將會增加，嚴重的話，網路可能會阻塞，網路世界的交通將會打結，無法處理。

Risk does not, of course, confine itself only to the troubled bits ofthe globe. In peaceful Britain, for example, might Queen Elizabeth,after 57 years on the throne, abdicate? And if so, in favour of hereldest son, or elder grandson? As for America, though skeptics willscoff, campaigners will cling to an outside chance that the deathpenalty will be abandoned, either by the will of a succession of statesor possibly by the Supreme Court ruling it “cruel and unusual”.
當然，危機不會只存在於地球的某一角。舉例來說，和平安祥的英國，伊莉莎白女王殿下在位五十七年之後，會不會宣佈讓位呢？若真的讓位了，是長子受益，還是對長孫有利呢？至於美國，盡管受到懷疑論者百般嘲諷，社運人士將堅持己見，尋求微乎其微的機會廢除死刑，不管是期待新任的國家元首宣佈死刑廢除，或是靜候最高法院宣判死刑是「殘酷無道的行為(cruel and unusual)」。