2009-10-18 22:14:17Column
台灣人口結構的改變是一場寧靜革命
Changing population structure leading 'silent revolution' in Taiwan
作者 中央社
編譯:廖文韻
Published: 2009-09-05 00:00:00
編譯:廖文韻
Published: 2009-09-05 00:00:00
國內的出生率下降加上人口老化，開啟一場寧靜革命，改變國內社會的基本結構、造成愈來愈多的威脅，一定要有因應措施才行。
Taiwan's falling birth rate and aging population are combining to wage a silent revolution that is changing the basic social structure of the country and poses a mounting threat that must be countered.
以上為東海大學社會系教授高承恕接受中央社訪問時發表的評論，他還提到，雖然這些趨勢將決定台灣未來的政治、經濟、社會等各方面的發展，不過對於可能發生的改變或是日漸浮現的威脅，政府與業界的認知似乎都不夠深刻。
That is the assessment of Tunghai University sociology professor Kao Cheng-shu, who argued in an interview with the Central News Agency that while these trends will decide Taiwan's future political, economic and social development, neither the government nor the private sector seem aware of the changes or the looming threat.
根據行政院經建會2008年所做的人口結構改變評估報告，國內65歲以上人口的比例，在2008年為10.4%，2018年將逐漸上升到14.7%，2056年則將增至37.5%。
According to a population change assessment conducted by the Cabinet-level Council of Economic Planning and Development (CEPD) in 2008, the percentage of Taiwan's total population aged 65 and over would gradually increase from 10.4 percent in 2008 to 14.7 percent in 2018 and to 37.5 percent in 2056.
高承恕說：「人口結構改變是一場寧靜革命，它無聲無息，卻可改變社會基本結構。」
"Population structure change is a silent revolution that occurs without making a sound, but it is so powerful that it will change the basic social structure," Kao said.
他表示，以經濟方面來說，要克服這項挑戰，產業的升級與精緻化將是唯一的道路。
In terms of the economy, the only way to deal with the challenge is to upgrade and refine Taiwan's industrial sector, he suggested.
高承恕說，以教育為例，政府近年只擴充大學的數量，卻未提升學校品質，這樣的決策太過輕率，忽略了人口老化的趨勢。
In the educational sector, the government's move to increase the number of universities in recent years rather than push to upgrade the quality of schools has been an ill-advised policy that ignores the aging population trend, Kao said.
他認為在少子化的社會中，大學倒了對社會造成的心理衝擊，比什麼都嚴重。
In a society with a dropping birth rate, "no psychological impact is greater than the one triggered by closing a university" he said.
談到「高齡化浪潮」問題，台北教育大學教育經營與管理學系教授莊淇銘表示，高齡化趨勢也意味著終身工作時代的來臨。
Speaking on the "age wave" issue, Chuang Chi-ming, a professor in educational management at National Taipei University of Education, pointed out that the graying population trend signifies the arrival of a "lifetime working" era.
莊淇銘說：「過去我們都說，『活到老，學到老』，現在要把這句老話改成『學到老，活到老』，也就是說不只是要終身工作，而且要終身有人願意給你工作，因此保持職場競爭力很重要。」
"In the past we always said 'live and learn.' Now the old cliché should be changed to 'learn and live,' which not only means that people will work for their entire lifetimes but also have to remain competitive in their professional field so that there will always be companies willing to hire them," Chuang said.
莊淇銘建議，大家應該在50多歲完成職場的第一生涯後，開始規畫職場第二生涯。
The scholar suggested that people begin to outline their second life career at around the age of 50 after completing their first life career.