今晚主要新聞媒體網站的頭條新聞都是穆巴拉克就快下台了。軍事將領的態度是促使如此戲劇化轉變的主因，畢竟在這樣的局勢中，擁有槍桿子的人有著擊大的影響力。

開羅附近守軍的將領 Hassan al-Roueini 甚至在抗議群眾聚集的廣場Tahrir Square 上向抗議者說：你們的訴求今天就會答應了！ （New York Times, pls refer to below story.）

我把紐約時報(The New York Times)、英國國家廣播電台(BBC)與經濟學人(The Economist)的報導都摘錄於下，請參考！

有幾件我覺得有趣的事：

1. 關閉 internet －－這是一項看似聰明的作法，然而此舉是否造成更多人不能在家裡上網發表反對穆巴拉克的言論，或關心 Tahrir Square 的情形於是只好走出來，參加這場抗議活動呢？

2. 剛聽過英國經濟學人(The Economist)的Podcast節目，訪問 Juan Cole (密西根大學歷史教授), 說突尼西亞是個特例，雖然會影響其他阿拉伯國家，但是並不會在其他阿拉伯國家發生類似的民主化運動。結果埃及就開始有人抗議穆巴拉克的三十年在位統治了。－－這個訪談仍在網上，又興趣的可以參考　A real shot at democracy　(Jan 20th 2011, 22:18)  Juan Cole of the University of Michigan, on why democracy may bloom in Tunisia, but won't spread to the rest of the Arab world.




Egypt’s Army Signals Transfer of Power



By ANTHONY SHADID AND DAVID D. KIRKPATRICK

CAIRO — President Hosni Mubarak of Egyptprepared to address the nation Thursday, with government officialsindicating that they expected him to resign, and Egypt’s militaryannouncing that it is intervening in state affairs in an attempt tostop the three-week old uprising.

The military declared on state television that it would take measures“to maintain the homeland and the achievements and the aspirations ofthe great people of Egypt” and meet the demands of the protesters whohave insisted on ending Mr. Mubarak’s 30-year rule.

Several government officials said Mr. Mubarak is expected to announcehis own resignation and pass authority to his hand-picked vicepresident, Omar Suleiman.But if the military does assume formal control of the government, itremains uncertain if it would give Mr. Suleiman, a former militaryofficer, a leading role.

State television said in a bulletin that Mr. Mubarak would make astatement tonight. The news anchor stumbled on her words as she saidMr. Mubarak would speak “live on air from the presidential palace.”Footage just before then had showed the president meeting with Mr.Suleiman and the country’s prime minister, Ahmed Shafiq.

The character of the military’s intervention and the shape of a newEgyptian government remained uncertain. A flurry of reports on statemedia on Thursday indicated a degree of confusion — or competing claims— about what kind of shift was underway, raising the possibility thatcompeting forces did not necessarily see the power transfer the sameway.

The White House was scrambling to keep abreast of the developments. “We’re going to have to wait and see what’s going on,” President Obama said in a surprise stop at a small lunch spot in Marquette, Mich.

Ahead of the military’s formal announcement, the military’s chief ofstaff, Sami Anan, made an appearance in Tahrir Square, where he pledgedto safeguard the people’s demands and their security. Thousands ofprotesters roared in approval, but they also chanted “Civilian!Civilian!”

Gen. Hassan al-Roueini, military commander for the Cairo area, alsoappeared in Tahrir Square and told the demonstrators, “All your demandswill be met today.” Some in the crowd held up their hands inV-for-victory signs, shouting “the people want the end of the regime”and “Allahu akbar,” or “God is great,” a victory cry used by secularand religious people alike.

The moves marked a decisive turn in an uprising that has broughthundreds of thousands into the streets in the most sweeping revolt inthe country’s history. So far, the military has stayed largely on thesidelines, but Thursday’s statement suggested it worried that thecountry was sliding into chaos. The military called the communiqué onstate TV “the first statement of the Supreme Council of the ArmedForces,” strongly suggestive that it had arranged to take power inEgypt.

The statement, read by a spokesman, said that the council was inpermanent session to explore “what measures and arrangements could bemade to safeguard the nation, its achievements and the ambitions of itsgreat people.”

Wael Ghonim, a Google executive and protest organizer whose anti-torture Facebook page helped spark the movement, wrote on his Twitter feed Thursday evening: “Mission accomplished. Thanks to all the brave young Egyptians.”

For weeks, the protesters have hoped the military would intervene ontheir side, though it remained unclear whether the military wouldsupport democratic reforms that would threaten its status as the mostpowerful single institution in the country.

For much of its modern history, the military has played a powerful butbehind-the-scenes role, reflecting its confidence that any governmentwould protect its stature. Across the political spectrum, many wonderedwhether that posture had shifted.

“We’re excited and nervous,” said Ahmed Sleem, an organizer with an opposition group led by Mohamed ElBaradei,a Nobel laureate. “If Mubarak and Suleiman leave, it would be a greatthing. A six-month deadline for elections would be suitable.”

Asked about the possibility of a military takeover, he said he was notafraid. “We know how to force them to step down. We know the way toTahrir Square.”

The prospect of a military takeover was also raised by Hossam Badrawy,the newly appointed secretary-general of the ruling National DemocraticParty.

“That’s an option,” he said. “That can happen. I don’t like it. I’dlike to see a civil structure for the state. I would like to see thearmy do its part to keep the country safe until we go back to normaland not military rule.”

The youthful leaders of the protest movement said that they wouldwelcome a role for the military in running the government during atransitional period, provided it was overseen by a council composedmainly of civilians. They repeated their previous demand that thecouncil should include only one military officer, and oversee thegovernment for a maximum of one year until free elections under arevised constitution.

Some said they worried about the next steps. “Of course we don’t wantthe military, but the people still consider the military the nation’ssavior,” said Abdel Rahman Faris, 30, an independent member of theyouth council set up to lead the revolution. “We should have enoughguarantees that the military will not turn into another Mubarak.”

He said the young leaders of the revolution did not expect any of theirnumber to sit on their proposed transitional council. “We are theyouth,” he said. “We know where our role stops.”

Moaz Abdel Karim, a 29 year old leader of the youth section of the Muslim Brotherhood, agreed: “We have had enough of military rule. We want a civilian president.”

Thursday’s meeting of the Supreme Council was shown on television, onlythe third time the council had met publicly — the first two were in1967 and 1973, during the wars with Israel. “Today, Thursday the 10thof February of the year 2011, a meeting was held to discuss thedevelopments of the situation today. It is decided that a meeting willconvene continuously to look into what measures and procedures to betaken to maintain the homeland and the achievements and the aspirationsof the great people of Egypt,” it said.

Even before the military stepped in, support seemed to be crumbling forMr. Mubarak within his own ruling party and government, as protesterscalled for the biggest demonstrations on Friday since the uprisingbegan on Jan. 25. Mr. Badrawy said Mr. Mubarak appeared to accept hiscall to peacefully transfer power to the vice president.

He said he expected the president to speak Thursday night.

“I hope he would say that he has respect for the people and that he hasasked for a constitutional amendment that guarantees a peacefultransfer of power and that he will give authority as president to thevice president. I hope this heads to early elections for the presidencyso the state and people can move to another era. That is what I hope hesays. That is what I’ve requested him to do,” Mr. Badrawy said.

He called Mr. Mubarak “very accommodating.”

“I know it is difficult for him,” he said. But he added, “I think I convinced him to do that as soon as possible.”

The dramatic developments came on the 17th day of the Egypt uprising,bolstered by strikes and protests among professional groups in Cairoand workers across the country. A senior official in Mr. Mubarak’sembattled government was quoted as saying the army would “intervene tocontrol the country” if it continued to devolve into chaos.

As tension built ahead of Friday’s planned mass protests, thousands ofchanting lawyers in black robes and physicians in white laboratorycoats marched into Tahrir Square — the epicenter of the uprising — tojoin the clamor for Mr. Mubarak’s ouster.

Engineers and journalists also headed for the square on Thursday as thenumbers there began to swell once again into the thousands, withdemonstrators mingling among the tents and graffiti-sprayed army tanksthat have taken on an air of semipermanence.

Officials in Mr. Mubarak’s government have been warning for severaldays that protesters faced a choice between negotiating in earnest withthe government on Constitutional changes or having the military step into guard against a descent into political chaos. Foreign Minister AhmedAboul Gheit seemed to add a further ominous tone to those commentstoday, telling Al Arabiya television,

“If chaos occurs, the armed forces will intervene to control thecountry, a step which would lead to a very dangerous situation.”

Mr. Aboul Gheit made the comments a day after he dismissed calls by Egyptian protesters and Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. to scrap the country’s emergency laws, which allow the authorities to detain people without charge.

Up until now, the military has pledged not to use force against theprotesters who have occupied Cairo’s central Tahrir Square and whosetactics have broadened to the establishment of a fresh encampmentoutside the Egyptian Parliament. But a report released Thursday by Human Rights Watch cast doubt on the military’s impartiality.

“Since Jan. 31, Human Rights Watch has documented the arbitrary arrestby military police of at least 20 protesters who were leaving orheading to Tahrir Square,” the group said in a statement. “Most ofthese arrests occurred in the vicinity of the square or in other partsof Cairo from where protesters were taking supplies to the square.”

The group said it had also documented at least five cases of thetorture of detainees at the hands of the military. A spokesman for themilitary denied the accusations.

The army has also deployed tanks and reinforcements across the city,setting up a narrow access point to the square that forces would-beprotesters into single file after they stand in long lines to enter.

The apparently hardening official line — and the stubborn resistance ofthe protesters — coincided with a surge of strikes and worker protestsaffecting post offices, textile factories and even Al Ahram, thegovernment’s flagship newspaper.

While the government turned up pressure on the opposition, there werecontinued signs of turmoil within its own ranks. State TV reported thatthe state prosecutor had opened a formal investigation of Ahmed Ezz, awidely hated former senior member of the ruling National DemocraticParty and a confidant of the president’s son Gamal Mubarak, and twoother former ministers.

Another N.D.P. official, Mamdouh Hosny, director of the Industry andEnergy Committee in Parliament, announced he was resigning from theparty, the Egyptian daily, Al Masry Al Youm, reported.

The presence of lawyers and other professionals joining thedemonstrations seemed to broaden the participation in the uprising,reflecting the influence of the Muslim Brotherhood, which has strongsupport among Egyptian lawyers and other professions..

Some of the protesters say they have been inspired by Mr. Ghonim, whohas emerged as a prominent voice in a revolt galvanized in part bysocial networking sites. On Thursday, a Twitter feed in his name inEnglish declared: “I promise every Egyptian that I will go back to mynormal life & not be involved in any politics once Egyptiansfulfill their dreams.”

But, in an interview on CNN,he was also quoted as saying he was “ready to die” for the opposition’scause. “And I’m telling this to Omar Suleiman,” he said. “He’s going towatch this. You’re not going to stop us. Kidnap me, kidnap all mycolleagues. Put us in jail. Kill us. Do whatever you want to do. We aregetting back our country. You guys have been ruining this country for30 years.”

10 February 2011Last updated at 18:05 GMT

Egypt's Mubarak 'may stand down'

Egypt'sPresident Hosni Mubarak is to make an address on national television,amid suggestions that he is preparing to step down.

Asenior member of Egypt's governing party, Hossan Badrawi, told the BBChe "hopes" Mr Mubarak will transfer power to Vice-President OmarSuleiman.

The country's military, meanwhile, has said it will "support the legitimate demands of the people".

This comes on the 17th day of protests against Mr Mubarak's 30-year rule.

Thousandsof Egyptians again took to the streets of Cairo and other Egyptiantowns and cities, calling for President Mubarak to step down.

President Hosni Mubarak

"I'vereceived reports that, possibly, Mubarak might do that," he told acongressional intelligence hearing. "We have not gotten specific wordthat he, in fact, will do that."

A spokesman forPresident Barack Obama said: "What we're looking for and what thepresident spoke about many days ago remains our priority: an orderlytransition to a free and fair election. What we're looking for remainsunchanged."

Mr Mubarak had previously pledged to quit office after presidential elections due to be held in September.

Negotiationsbetween the government and opposition groups have made little progress,with protesters disillusioned by plans for reform put forward by MrMubarak's government.

In recent days, the US government had stepped up its call for the protesters' concerns to be addressed.

　Analysis

State television interruptedall programming to present what was in the end an ambiguous messagefrom the high council of the Egyptian armed forces.

Whilepromising to take "necessary measures to protect the nation", themilitary also said it would "support the legitimate demands of thepeople" and remain in "continuous session".

PresidentMubarak will be listening carefully. He needs the support of thecountry's most powerful institution, the military, if he is to stay inpower. Could this have been the military's way of saying that it wastime for him to go?

Senior officials have beensuggesting that Mr Mubarak is likely to announce he is standing downwithin hours. That has excited protesters in Tahrir Square in centralCairo but this may be premature.

Some sources are backing up the reports but others deny it. For now the impression is of division and uncertainty at the top.

Doctors,bus drivers, lawyers and textile workers were on strike in Cairo onThursday, with trade unions reporting walkouts and protests across thecountry.

The BBC's Jon Leyne, in Cairo's Tahrir(Liberation) Square, the focal point of the anti-Mubarak protests,reports that the protesters there are starting to celebrate afterhearing news of Mr Mubarak's possible departure.

Statenews agency Mena says the high council of the armed forces is in astate of continuous session "to protect the nation, its gains and theaspirations of the people".

State TV is reporting that Mr Mubarak is currently in his office, holding talks with his deputy.

Essamal-Erian, a senior member of the Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt's biggestopposition group, said he feared that the Egyptian military was staginga coup.

"It looks like a military coup ... I feelworry and anxiety," he told Reuters news agency. "The problem is notwith the president, it is with the regime."

Thedirector of the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), Leon Panetta,said he had received unconfirmed reports that Mr Mubarak would stepdown on Thursday evening.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12421000

The die is cast

Feb 10th 2011, 17:08 by M.R. | CAIRO