HAMAMATSU, Japan — People here refer to it as “electric vehicle shock.”
Sooner or, more likely, later the electric car could render thousands of companies superfluous here in the heart of Japan’s auto parts region.
No more engines. No call for exhaust pipes. Spark plugs? Gone with the electric-car wind.
Or so, in essence, warns a recent widely circulated study that predictsthe eventual demise of much of Hamamatsu’s gasoline engine economy.Spurred by that study and a general sense of foreboding, carmakers,parts factories and local governments in this sprawling industrial townare joining forces to prepare for a future of electric vehicles.
foreboding n. a strong feeling that something unpleasant or dangerous is going to happen (對不祥或危險事情的)強烈預感
Suzuki Motor, based in Hamamatsu, helped found a regionwide alliance inOctober that will help parts makers develop new automotive technologiesgeared toward electric cars, and even other industries.
The alliance will host a study group later this month in whichengineers will dismantle an electric car motor made by Suzuki for partsmakers to study.
“We are in the midst of an industrial revolution,” Osamu Suzuki, theautomaker’s 80-year-old president, said on Oct. 7 at a rally tocommemorate the start of the alliance.
“Our suppliers need to start studying how they can transform their businesses.”
Some experts in Japan warn that Hamamatsu is a microcosm of a widerchallenge facing Japanese car manufacturing, which consists of a web ofmanufacturers like Toyota and Hondasupported by thousands of companies that turn out engine blocks,exhaust pipes and hundreds of other parts specific to gas power.
According to a study published in August by the Shizuoka EconomicResearch Institute, almost 30 percent of sales in Japan’s 34.6 trillionyen ($430 billion) auto parts industry comes from parts that could berendered obsolete by electricity-powered vehicles. In Shizuoka, theregion surrounding Hamamatsu that is known for its strengths in enginetechnology, that number jumps to 48 percent, the institute says.
“Japan has always prided itself in developing the best engines, thebest auto technology,” said Hisashi Nakajima, senior managing directorat the institute and the author of the report. “If we don’t dosomething now, Japan’s strength could turn out to be its weakness.”
Hamamatsu is desperate to keep alive the estimated 2,000 auto partsmakers in the city that makes up two-thirds of its 3 trillion yen ($37billion) manufacturing economy and supports almost 100,000 jobs. Twoother major industries in the city, textiles and musical instruments,have declined in the last decades, usurped by cheaper rivals in therest of Asia.
Hamamatsu, locals say, now literally runs on gasoline engines. Inaddition to Suzuki, the city is also home to Yamaha Motor, a Japanesepioneer in internal combustion engines that has provided Toyota Motorwith engines for some of its most revered models, including its 2000GTsports car, a highly prized collectors’ car from the 1960s. Yamahacontinues to provide Toyota with engines for some domestic models likethe Crown. The region’s auto parts suppliers had supported that effortby staying on the cutting edge of engine development. Building on thatstrength, these parts makers — which range from tiny factories run by ahandful of employees to multinational corporations with more than 1,000workers — supply parts to all but one of Japan’s major automakers. Theexception is Mazda.
For the last 40 years, Harada Seiki has honed its precisionmetal-cutting technology for automobile engine parts: spark plugs,crankshafts and piston rings.
Now, Harada Seiki wants to participate in the regionwide alliance tostudy whether its production processes would be applicable toelectric-vehicle motors.
“Electric cars will have far less of the kind of parts that we’vealways manufactured,” said Hirotoshi Harada, the parts maker’spresident. “But they may require parts that never existed before,” hesaid. “That’s what we want to find out.”
But Mr. Harada and other executives point to challenges. For one, it isnot clear how fast the shift toward electric vehicles will occur. Theresearch company J. D. Power estimates that by 2015, hybridgas-electric and all-electric vehicles will surpass three million unitsa year, or about 3.4 percent of global light-vehicle sales. But afterthat, adoption depends greatly on factors like government policies, theprice of gas and how fast the infrastructure for batteries andrecharging can be set up, analysts say.
Nor is it clear what technologies will eventually dominate —gas-electric hybrids, plug-in hybrids, pure electric vehicles or evenfuel-cell cars — or whether gasoline cars will ever become obsolete.Even big auto makers seem reluctant to bet on one technology. Nissan,which will introduce what it says will be the first mass-producedall-electric vehicle next month, on Tuesday expanded its gas-electrichybrid lineup with its new Infiniti M.
But to the extent the car industry does shift toward electric vehicles,analysts say Japan’s auto industry could face new rivals overseas, andfrom industries and regions beyond those traditionally associated withcar making.
China has emerged as a front-runner in electric vehicles, with a flurryof small companies producing simple, cheap plug-in cars. And in SiliconValley, the start-up Tesla has sold luxury battery-powered sports carssince 2008.
Meanwhile, auto parts makers have surrendered a central part of theelectric car, batteries, to the electronics industry. Even topautomakers are working with electronics companies to develop andproduce the powerful and complex batteries required for electricvehicle power trains. Toyota, for example, is working with Panasonic, while General Motors is working with a unit of LG Corporation of South Korea.
“The industry map is being redrawn,” said Mr. Nakajima of the ShizuokaEconomic Research Institute. “In that turmoil, winners can becomelosers, and losers, winners.”
Meanwhile, many parts makers here, especially smaller ones, may seetheir research and development capabilities or financial resourcesstretched too thin to develop parts for electric vehicles while alsokeeping up with developments in gasoline-car production.
Indeed, many small factories in Japan are already struggling tosurvive, weighed down by a sluggish economy and a strong yen. TheJapanese currency has surged to 15-year highs in recent months,punishing manufacturers by making their products more expensiveoverseas.
“The question is: Where do they spend their limited resources?” saidOliver Hazimeh, director at PRTM Management Consultants, based inWaltham, Mass., and a leader of the firm’s clean transportation work.“Do they focus on something that’s going to happen 10 or 15 years out,or do they keep on developing for gasoline cars?”
He added, “They still have time, but they need to think about what is their long-term strategy.”
If history is a guide, the region’s parts makers have shown an abilityto adapt to change. ASTI, another Hamamatsu-based parts maker, had itsroots in making piano connector parts and wire harnesses for Yamahapianos and organs. When Yamaha’s business shifted to engines andmotorbikes in the 1970s, ASTI adapted its wire harness for automotiveuse.
Now ASTI says it faces its biggest challenge yet: to develop wiring andcables that will withstand the greatly increased electricity needs ofan electric car. A wire harness for conventional cars carries about 12volts, says Masashi Terada, a director in charge of technicalengineering at ASTI. In purely electric vehicles, some cables wouldneed to channel more than 10 times that, he said.
“We want to figure out what automakers are looking for as they movetowards zero-emissions cars,” Mr. Terada said. “Or even better, weourselves want to take the lead and tell automakers what they need.”
Hiroshi Tsuda, a former president at Suzuki who now leads the localalliance that will help parts makers evolve into electric vehiclesuppliers, is optimistic. “By acting now, both parts makers and carmakers can stay ahead of the curve,” Mr. Tsuda said. “Japanese industryhas always adapted with the times,” he said. “This is not a crisis.It’s a big opportunity.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/03/business/global/03japancar.html
The story was taken from The New York Times, which is not involved with nor endorse the production of this blog. The copyright remains with The New York Times Company.