雖然經濟學人的報導說：美元在主要的國際貨幣中表現相對強勢，但是美元真的强嗎？美國自己不也是負債累累，又有大筆的錢用在經濟振興與紓困計畫，美國多印了多少鈔票來應付這些需求呢？7,500億歐元的預算用來幫助體質不良的歐元經濟體，可以想見歐洲央行未來也會多印很多鈔票，所以貶值與通貨膨脹應該都是預料中的事了。

我們的情況也好不到哪去！天下雜誌的報導：至二○一一年底，馬政府上任三年半，租稅優惠和減免總共帶來六三五八億的稅收損失，等於每位國民損失兩萬七千元。至於舉債，如果保守估計明年舉債金額與今年相當，三年半新增債務高達一兆四千三百二十二億，每位國民負擔六萬兩千元。

所以，我想黃金價格創新高的新聞，今後將常常在新聞中報導。(現貨金價創1245美元新高位)


 




Currencies

Green back

May 6th 2010
From The Economist print edition

In a world of ugly currencies, the dollar is sitting pretty

JOHNMAYNARD KEYNES once likened investing to judging a beauty contest. Fortoday’s currency investor, however, none of the main contestants looksthat fetching. “It’s more like an ugliness contest,” says onehedge-fund manager.

The dollar,for all its blemishes, is the least hideous-looking. So far this yearit has risen against the other main currencies (the yen, pound andeuro) that are traded internationally and held as reserves by centralbanks. It has risen most against the euro, which started the year at$1.43 but bought just $1.28 on May 6th (see chart). The euro hasslumped in part because the Greek crisis makes it look a poor choicefor reserve managers hoping to diversify their big dollar holdings. Thevariable quality of euro sovereign bonds is now much harder to ignore.Treasury bonds, with their liquid markets and unique issuer, lookprettier.

The case fora further drop in the euro against the dollar has more than justmomentum to back it. Business cycles favour it: the euro-area economyis picking up speed again, but America’s recovery is more advanced. Thepressure to tighten fiscal policy in some parts of the euro area willmake it hard for the European Central Bank to even consider raisinginterest rates. A weaker euro also addresses the deeper cause of thepresent crisis: a lack of export competitiveness in the south of thecurrency zone. It does not help Greece, Portugal and the rest competewith Germany, but it at least gives their firms a chance againstimports from outside the euro bloc.

A cheapereuro hurts America, which will feel it is owed a chance for export-ledgrowth after almost ruining itself as the world’s main consumer. Bymost fair-value gauges, the euro is still dear against the dollar,notwithstanding its recent slide. Even so, a weaker euro maycrystallise a feeling that Europe is not doing its bit to supportglobal demand.

Are there anybeautiful currencies left? A handful had comfortably outpaced thedollar this year before the latest market tremors had investorsgrasping for greenbacks. Two such currencies are the Australian dollarand the Canadian dollar. Both are issued by rich countries with stablebanks that have not sullied the public finances. Another is the SouthKorean won. Brazil’s real may over time develop as a reliable store ofvalue. The trouble is, securities issued in these currencies are a tinyfraction of those available in the world’s four main currencies, saysStephen Jen of BlueGold Capital, a hedge fund. The lack of scale andliquidity limits their role as reserve currencies. The dollar has thoseplainer qualities in abundance.

http://www.economist.com/business-finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=16064067