＊ 印度長期發展備受國際看佳，而中國此刻選擇與美對峙；顯示國情不安，官方認為Ｗ型發展模式是符合當局的政治需求。但印度，除了與巴基斯坦有衝突可能，不如中國近年樹敵的多且雜。五年前，中國放棄外東北主權之後，相繼安定了與前蘇聯諸國的關係，此後即積極向東發展，綱要如德意志第二帝國，禍福難料。然而「是福不是禍，是禍躲不過」。究竟中美，哪一國將突然崩潰，值得國際觀察
＊ Maubo Chang 2010/03/15

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao reiterated in Beijing Sunday that China will give Taiwan favorable treatment in the proposed trade pact between the two sides, because "we are siblings." He said that Taiwan and China share a 5,000-year culture that should not be obliterated merely because of 50-year political division.

Wen was really kind in his remarks about Taiwan, but his friendly attitude is not shared by Chinese military hawks and many Chinese officials who have not concealed their hostility toward Taiwan, even during visits to the country.

This is obviously because China is using a "good cop-bad cop" strategy, with its leaders playing the gentle roles while the mid-level officials take the threatening ones.

However, instead of winning Taiwanese support, the strategy only baffles them about who represents the real China? Wen’s offer of favorable treatment to Taiwan will only whip up suspicion in Taiwan, because any country will vie for their own interests in such a trade pact, so why on earth would China do the opposite? Apparently there is a political plot behind it. For Taiwan, what really matters is the difference between its political system and that of China, rather than their common cultural and ethnic origins.

Taiwanese never deny their Han ancestry. Their trouble with China is not where they come from, but the different styles of government they prefer.

Taiwan’s youth are not hostile toward China, but they do not like a regime that acts as a big brother, and that is the question Wen should address. (March 15, 2010)


中國對美國的錯誤賭注
＊ 奈伊(Joseph S. Nye) 2010年03月12日蘋果日報

目前中美關係又一次跌入低谷。中國反對歐巴馬總統在白宮會見達賴喇嘛，反對美國對台軍售。雖然這在以往都有先例，但中國領導人希望歐巴馬對待關於中國國家統一的「核心利益」的問題上，應表現的更加謹慎一些。

事態的發展急轉直下。一年之前，歐巴馬當局努力向中國示好。美國國務卿希拉蕊也有所謂的「同舟共濟」和中美兩國將「共同進退」的言論。美國財長蓋納宣稱，他和中國同行交流的時間比其他國家都要多。一些觀察人士甚至提出了中美兩國共同統治世界G2的概念。

G2的想法一向愚蠢。歐洲經濟總量超過美國和中國。日本的經濟總量也和中國相當。它們在國際事務中的話語權必不可少。而且去年在20國集團框架內日益密切的美中合作關係不僅僅是美中雙方的事情，更是一個多邊合作典範。

中國傲慢過於自信

儘管近期剛發生達賴和對台軍售事件，美中關係惡化早有苗頭。例如，許多美國眾議員抱怨，由於中國政府干預，人民幣對美國的匯率人為拉低，這使得美國就業率上升。

另一個事件就是在去年年底的哥本哈根氣候大會上，中國對美國的不合作態度。中國不僅推翻了先前已經談定的條件，更為過分的是，中國總理溫家寶居然派遣一名低階官員和歐巴馬會談，並在會上手指著歐巴馬說話，這顯然是一種外交上的羞辱。

當聯合國五個常任理事國（加上德國）討論制裁伊朗之時，中國同樣派遣了一名低階官員。

這種初期的表象說明什麼呢？中國改變做法的原因有兩個—這兩點乍看起來好像不連貫，其實是彼此有關聯的。首先，2012年將是胡溫政權交接之年，隨著國內民族主義的升溫，沒有哪個中國領導人敢於向國外示弱。這也是近期鎮壓新疆和西藏及關押人權活動律師的原因所在。

此外，中國正經歷著經濟轉型期。一些中國人質疑8％的增長率能否滿足創造足夠的就業崗位和化解社會不穩定因素。但是，隨著美國儲蓄率的提高，中國出口型增長模式，這種建立在全球貿易不平衡基礎上的解決就業方法就不可能一直持續下去。如果人民幣的匯率被調整，國內的不滿情緒將很難得以平和。

第二是中國的傲慢和過於自信。中國為其首先從經濟危機中走出而感到自豪，而且有著高速的增長率。中國現在擁有約20兆美元的外匯儲備，譴責美國是這場危機的製造者。

許多中國人認為，世界格局的力量正在發生轉移，中國不應該再像過去那樣軟弱，特別是對美國問題上。中國學者提出美國衰落論，並認為2000年是美國國力轉折之年（但未回顧北洋政府執政年代，中國貿易總額居世界第三的經濟史）。在外交上的過度自信，加上國內局勢的不穩定或許是中國近期改變策略的原因。如果真是如此，那中國就太失策了。首先，美國不會就此衰落。有關美國衰落論近年來一直不絕於耳。但我們來看美國的核心競爭力，世界經濟論壇依舊將美國排名第二（僅次於瑞士），而中國只能排在三十多名。

世界經濟相互依賴

第二，中國持有如此大量的美元不能看做一種真正制約力，世界經濟是相互依賴，相互對應的關係。當然，如果中國拋售美元，美國經濟將受到重創，但這樣中國經濟也同樣也不好過。如果這樣做的話，中國不僅失去美元儲備，失業率也會飆升。只有這種相互依賴的關係是一種平衡，而不是一種單方面的制約力。

第三，儘管中國有著不滿，但美元很可能依舊是世界主要儲備貨幣，美國資本市場的廣度和深度是中國無法與之抗衡的，尤其在沒有銀行系統改革和讓人民幣匯率自由浮動之前。

最後，中國違背了鄧小平當年的「韜光養晦」的政治智慧。近期，一位亞洲國家政府的高官告訴我，如果是鄧還在，就不會犯這樣的錯誤。

（作者為美國哈佛大學甘迺迪學院教授、曾任美國國防部助理部長）


Newly powerful China defies Western nations
＊ Analyst: ‘This is a fundamental shift ... It’s a change in national attitude’
＊ John Pomfret March 15, 2010

BEIJING - China’s government has embraced an increasingly anti-Western tone in recent months and is adopting policies across a wide spectrum that reflect a heightened fear of foreign influence.

The shift has accelerated as China has emerged stronger from the global financial meltdown, with a world-beating economic expansion rate and a growing nationalist movement. China has long felt bullied by the West, and its stronger stance is challenging the long-held assumption shared among Western and Chinese businessmen, academics and government officials that a more powerful and prosperous China would be more positively inclined toward Western values and systems.

China’s shift is occurring throughout society, and is reflected in government policy and in a new attitude toward the West. Over the past year, the government of President Hu Jintao has rolled back market-oriented reforms by encouraging China’s state-owned enterprises to forcibly buy private firms. In the past weeks, China announced plans to force Western companies to turn over their most sensitive technology and patents to Chinese competitors in exchange for access to the country’s markets.

Internally, it has carried out more arrests and indictments for endangering state security over the past two years than in the five-year period from 2003 to 2007, according to a report released Friday by the Dui Hua Foundation, a San Francisco-based human rights organization.

China has also reined in the news media and attempted to control the Internet more vigorously than in the past. This month, it announced regulations designed to make it harder for China’s fledgling community of nongovernmental organizations to get financial support from overseas. In foreign affairs, after years of playing down differences, it has reverted to a tone not heard in more than a decade, condemning recent U.S. decisions to sell weapons to Taiwan and to have President Obama meet the exiled Tibetan leader, the Dalai Lama.

"This is a fundamental shift, and I’ve been here a long time," said James L. McGregor, a senior counselor with the public affairs firm Apco China. "It’s a change in national attitude."

'Arrogance’
For their part, senior Chinese leaders bristle at the notion that China is turning away from reforms or is reluctant to cooperate with Western nations. In a news conference on Sunday, Premier Wen Jiabao said he was aware of "theories about China’s arrogance, toughness and triumphalism," but rejected them. Asked about widespread criticism of China’s hard-line position at the U.N. Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen, for example, Wen replied: "It still baffles me why some people continue to try to make an issue about China."

Nonetheless, China’s legislature, whose annual session ended this weekend, also showed the trend toward toughness. With a reported 700,000 security personnel posted throughout the city for the 10-day session, Beijing was in a virtual lockdown. Inside the Great Hall of the People, the proposals — albeit spurious — put forward by the delegates to the National People’s Congress included calls for all Internet cafes to be taken over by the government and a declaration that all cellphones should be equipped with surveillance cameras.

The shift does not bode well for U.S.-China relations. The Obama administration entered office with an ambitious China agenda comprising plans to cooperate on climate change, curbing the nuclear ambitions of Iran and North Korea, and stabilizing the global financial system. In China, those plans are generally viewed by the party leadership as a trap to overextend and weaken the country, according to a Chinese official who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he would lose his job if his name were published.

In his news conference, Wen also seemed disinclined to bend to another American demand — that China allow its currency, the yuan, to appreciate against the dollar, which (theoretically) would boost U.S. exports. Wen countered that he didn’t think the yuan is undervalued and that the U.S. method of seeking to enlarge exports through tweaking currency exchange rates is "protectionist."

The change comes during what a leading Chinese economist, Hu Angang, in an interview called "the longest golden era in China since the opium wars" of the 1840s, when British warships forced China to open to trade. From its position as an impoverished, developing country, it has jumped into the ranks of the powerful.

But the closer China gets to a variety of firsts — No. 1 exporting nation and even No. 1 economy in the world — the more its government seems to exhibit a nagging insecurity and opposition to the West.

"The Chinese people are no longer embarrassed about being Chinese," said Wang Xiaodong, a leading nationalist writer who has co-authored a series of popular books with titles such as "China Is Unhappy," which capitalized on the growing anti-Western trend. "The time when China worshipped the West is over. We have a rightful sense of superiority."

"People are now looking down on the West, from leadership circles to academia to everyday folk," said Kang Xiaoguang, a professor at Renmin University who studies NGOs and Confucius.

Gettysburg Address
The turn away from the West is evidenced within China’s leadership. China’s previous president, Jiang Zemin, is widely thought to have been pro-American. He was fond of reciting the Gettysburg Address and crooning American songs. During a trip to the United States in 1997, he took the politically risky move of announcing that China welcomed continued U.S. engagement in Asia — including the stationing of American troops. On the other hand, Hu, who took power in 2002, is the first Communist leader with no experience outside the current system.

Other factors are at play. It is campaign season in Beijing. In two years, the leadership of the Communist Party will undergo a huge transition, with as many as seven of the nine seats of the Standing Committee of the Politburo — the center of power — up for grabs. Nothing looks better in China than being tough on the West.

Secondly, despite its apparent successes, China’s leadership continues to be alarmed by international developments — such as the "color revolutions" inside the former Soviet Union — and domestic ones as well, such as the anti-Chinese riots in Tibet in 2008 and the northwest province of Xinjiang last year.

A recent example is how the party reacted to the threat by the Internet search company Google, which said it would leave the country if China continued to censor the Internet. Concerned about an outpouring of support in China for the American company, the Ministry of Propaganda framed the issue not as an argument over freedom but as part of a U.S. strategy to contain and isolate China.

On Friday, Li Yizhong, China’s minister of industry and information technology, issued China’s toughest statement on the dispute yet. "If you want to do something that disobeys Chinese law and regulations, you are unfriendly, you are irresponsible, and you will have to pay the consequences," he warned.

China’s policy changes have met with opposition. Not all of its efforts to nationalize private companies have succeeded. And China’s plans to compel Western businesses to share their technology have prompted a backlash from a community that does not like to criticize China openly. On that front, Wen on Sunday seemed to give in a little.

"I must say I am still not in very close touch with foreign businessmen doing work in China," he acknowledged. "In the next three years I will create more opportunities . . . to listen to your views."