TAIWAN’S voters go the polls on January 16th to elect a new president and parliament (called the Legislative Yuan). If the polls are any guide, the result will change the island’s government, profoundly affect its relationship with China and possibly reheat the “frozen conflict” across the Taiwan Strait.

China claims sovereignty over Taiwan, which it considers a renegade province. In 1992, it and the then-ruling Kuomintang (KMT) party on Taiwan approved a so-called consensus in which they said there was only one China but agreed to disagree about what that means in practice. Taiwan’s opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has never accepted this 1992 consensus and some members of the DPP want to declare independence, which China says would provoke it to take over the island by force. The last time there was a DPP president, in 2000-08, relations between the two sides were extremely tense.

Tsai Ing-wen, the current leader of the DPP is far ahead of the KMT’s Eric Chu and odds-on favourite to become president. The race for the legislature is closer but the DPP stands a chance of winning there, too, either outright or in alliance with smaller parties. The main reason for this is that Taiwan’s economy, closely dependent on a slowing China, is weak, growing barely 1% in 2015. The country suffers from high levels of youth unemployment and stagnant salaries. The capital, Taipei, has become one of the world’s most expensive cities relative to income. Voters blame the ruling KMT for Taiwan’s poor economic performance. But a DPP victory would again raise questions about the island’s relations with the mainland.

Ms Tsai is a more cautious figure than her DPP predecessor, who delighted in riling China. Both sides have an interest in not rocking the boat. But both also have their own hotheads: DPP independence-seekers in Taiwan, military figures impatient of China’s caution in Beijing. The chances of a confrontation cannot be ruled out.