BEIJING — China’scentral bank announced on Saturday that it was raising interest ratesfor the second time in about two months in what appears to be along-term campaign to suppress inflation as many ordinary Chineseexpress discontent with rising consumer prices.
The People’s Bank of China said it would raise the one-year benchmarklending rate by 25 basis points to 5.81 percent, and the benchmarkdeposit rate by the same amount to 2.75 percent.
The Chinese economy has been awash in liquidity due to governmentstimulus money and generous lending by state banks. Chinese officialsare now concerned about an overheated economy and the inflationarypressures that come with that.
The fact that China’s economy has remained robust during the globalrecession gives Chinese officials leeway to rein in liquidity. Thecountry has been growing at an average of 10 percent a year, and thestrength of the export industry remains high despite a dip in late2008, when the financial crisis first roiled the United States and thenother parts of the world.
But investment in large capital-intensive projects has also been fueling the economic engine and driving up prices.
Analysts have been saying for months that they expect China to raise interest rates throughout 2011.
Earlier this month, the government reported that the consumer price indexrose 5.1 percent in November, compared with the same period a year ago.It was the largest increase in three years. Since the spring, theyear-on-year increase in the index has been above 3 percent, despitethe government’s desire to keep the average increase below 3 percentfor the entire year.
Chinese leaders are aware of the political dangers of high inflation. Xinhua, the state news agency, reportedon Dec. 17 that Li Keqiang, the vice premier, said at a conference ofgovernment officials that “more efforts should be provided to stabilizeprices next year.” He added that over the next five years, growth ratesshould be defined “reasonably.” Mr. Li is expected to take over asprime minister in 2012 from Wen Jiabao, who now oversees the economy.
Officials have signaled throughout the month that moves will be takento better control spending across the country. China announced on Dec.3 that it would tighten monetary policynext year, shifting it from “relatively loose to prudent.” That was aclear sign that Chinese officials were intensely concerned aboutinflation.
On Dec. 15, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a prominentresearch organization based in Beijing, reported that high inflationand housing prices had contributed to a deepening sense of populardisaffection. The findings of the report were based on a survey of 4,143 people.
Commodity prices were the main concern of urban residents, followed byhealth care and housing prices, according to the findings, which werereported by Xinhua. Rural residents in this year’s survey said healthcare was their top concern, followed by commodity prices.
Job satisfaction among those surveyed was at its lowest in four years, according to the academy.
Also on Dec. 15, the central bank said that satisfaction among people with the current level of priceshad dropped to an 11-year low. The bank’s findings were based on asurvey of 20,000 people during the fourth quarter in 50 cities acrossChina.
The real estate market is another concern. The property market in Chinahas been booming. Rising property prices, along with the governmentstimulus money and loose bank lending, have spurred new developmentsacross the country. Even long-term residents on the tropical southernisland of Hainan have had to grapple with soaring real estate pricesfrom outsiders coming in to buy up land.
Some analysts say this growth has resulted in a gargantuan bubble inthe real estate market, while others argue that the capacity will beput to good use.
A record $560 billion of residential property was sold in 2009, anincrease of 80 percent over 2008, according to government statistics.
In October, the government increased its benchmark lending rate, inwhat appeared to be an effort to tamp down real estate speculation.
Until now, low wages have helped to hold down inflation and keepChina’s export industry competitive. But those wages in the context ofsoaring real estate prices mean that migrant workers from the interiorof China are becoming less tolerant of poor work conditions on thecoasts, where many of China’s export manufacturing factories arelocated. Many workers are now choosing to stay closer to home in theinterior provinces, and some companies are moving their manufacturingcenters inland.