2009-10-07 00:14:41frank
不景氣成了氣候暖化問題的轉機
經濟不景氣反而成為氣候議題的轉機，今年氣溫上升的幅度可以控制在G8的目標：攝氏兩度。最大的減碳是來自能源效率的改善。
IEA 國際能源機構提出的一個降低二氧化碳的劇本，根據這個劇本，經濟合作暨發展組織（OECD）的會員國與或歐盟(EU)成員國將在2020年前減少17%能源相關的排放量，而在2030年前減少50%。2020年以後十年內，核能發電需增加三倍，可更新能源要增加四倍，清潔燃煤需增加14倍；估計的成本是十兆美元。成本十分高昂，但是如果不做，那後果將無法想像！
先進國家很顯然要肩負較重的責任，而像中國、印度與巴西這些發展中國家也只能增加少許的溫室氣體排放量：到2030年為止，只能較目前增加14%。
Page last updated at 10:51 GMT, Tuesday, 6 October 2009 11:51 UK
Downturn is 'climate opportunity'
By Richard Black
Environment correspondent, BBC News website
The IEA says governments must act fast - and protestors say they are not
The global recession provides a window of opportunity to curb climate change and build a low-carbon future, says the International Energy Agency (IEA).
It calculates that global greenhouse gas emissions will fall by 3% this year - an increase on previous estimates.
If governments take this opportunity to invest in clean technology, the global temperature rise can be kept below the G8 goal of 2C (3.6F), the agency says.
The findings were released at UN climate talks in Bangkok.
"The message is simple and stark: if the world continues on the basis of today's energy and climate policies, the consequences of climate change will be severe," said IEA executive director Nobuo Tanaka.
"Energy is at the heart of the problem - and so must form the core of the solution."
The recession is likely to mean emissions being 3% lower this year than last - and it will have a longer term impact, the IEA says, with emissions in 2020 projected to be 5% less than they would have been without an economic dip.
The biggest carbon cuts will come from improving energy efficiency, it says.
Slash, not burn
The agency presents a series of policy measures for different regions of the world and for countries at various stages of economic development.
Its prescription would lead to greenhouse gas concentrations being stabilised at the equivalent of 450 parts per million (ppm) of carbon dioxide - a level that, according to some analyses, offers a good chance that the rise in the global average temperature since pre-industrial times could be kept within 2C.
Without these policies, the agency calculates that concentrations will soar to 1,000ppm by mid-century - levels that, in many scientists' views, would lead to catastrophic and irreversible consequences.
But political and financial capital needs to be invested soon if the world is to follow the 450ppm path, it says, with emissions needing to peak around 2020.
The IEA sees carbon reductions coming mainly through higher efficiency
Developed countries, which it defines as those in the OECD and/or EU, will have to slash energy-related emissions by 17% in the next 11 years and by 50% by 2030.
Other major emitters such as China, India and Brazil would have to keep the rise in their emissions to 14% above current levels by 2030.
Countries in earlier stages of development would be able to increase their greenhouse gas output.
Globally, clean energy technologies would expand rapidly.
In the decade after 2020, the IEA's prescription includes a threefold expansion of nuclear power, a fourfold growth in the renewables sector and a 14-fold expansion of clean coal technologies.
The cost of this transformation would be $10 trillion between 2010 and 2030, the agency says - but improving energy efficiency would save virtually the same amount.
Bangkok heat
In a foreword to the report, Yvo de Boer, executive secretary of the UN climate convention (UNFCCC), warned that all of this was contingent on tying up an ambitious global deal during December's UN climate conference in Copenhagen.
"These results should motivate us all to step up efforts to reach an agreement with the requisite ambition," he said.
The IEA says low-carbon avenues would be explored for all walks of life
"The cost of addressing climate change is manageable. The cost of not doing so is unaffordable."
Mr de Boer is currently in Bangkok, chairing a preparatory meeting of officials from governments inside the UN convention.
On Monday, China and Sudan - which chairs the G77/China bloc of primarily developing nations - accused rich countries of trying to "kill off" one of the fundamentals of the Kyoto Protocol - that emission targets should be legally binding in some way.
They accuse western countries such as the US and Australia of wanting to make targets more flexible, which they fear will allow "wriggle room".
The EIA's analysis forms part of its annual World Energy Outlook, and has been released early in order that it can be discussed in the Bangkok talks.
Selected headline figures, including the recession's projected impact on emissions, were made public last month.
Richard.Black-INTERNET@bbc.co.uk
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8292175.stm
The story was taken from the website of BBC News. The copyright reamins with BBC. BBC is not involved with, nor endorse the production of this blog.
IEA 國際能源機構提出的一個降低二氧化碳的劇本，根據這個劇本，經濟合作暨發展組織（OECD）的會員國與或歐盟(EU)成員國將在2020年前減少17%能源相關的排放量，而在2030年前減少50%。2020年以後十年內，核能發電需增加三倍，可更新能源要增加四倍，清潔燃煤需增加14倍；估計的成本是十兆美元。成本十分高昂，但是如果不做，那後果將無法想像！
先進國家很顯然要肩負較重的責任，而像中國、印度與巴西這些發展中國家也只能增加少許的溫室氣體排放量：到2030年為止，只能較目前增加14%。
Page last updated at 10:51 GMT, Tuesday, 6 October 2009 11:51 UK
Downturn is 'climate opportunity'
By Richard Black
Environment correspondent, BBC News website
The IEA says governments must act fast - and protestors say they are not
The global recession provides a window of opportunity to curb climate change and build a low-carbon future, says the International Energy Agency (IEA).
It calculates that global greenhouse gas emissions will fall by 3% this year - an increase on previous estimates.
If governments take this opportunity to invest in clean technology, the global temperature rise can be kept below the G8 goal of 2C (3.6F), the agency says.
The findings were released at UN climate talks in Bangkok.
"The message is simple and stark: if the world continues on the basis of today's energy and climate policies, the consequences of climate change will be severe," said IEA executive director Nobuo Tanaka.
"Energy is at the heart of the problem - and so must form the core of the solution."
The recession is likely to mean emissions being 3% lower this year than last - and it will have a longer term impact, the IEA says, with emissions in 2020 projected to be 5% less than they would have been without an economic dip.
The biggest carbon cuts will come from improving energy efficiency, it says.
Slash, not burn
The agency presents a series of policy measures for different regions of the world and for countries at various stages of economic development.
Its prescription would lead to greenhouse gas concentrations being stabilised at the equivalent of 450 parts per million (ppm) of carbon dioxide - a level that, according to some analyses, offers a good chance that the rise in the global average temperature since pre-industrial times could be kept within 2C.
Without these policies, the agency calculates that concentrations will soar to 1,000ppm by mid-century - levels that, in many scientists' views, would lead to catastrophic and irreversible consequences.
But political and financial capital needs to be invested soon if the world is to follow the 450ppm path, it says, with emissions needing to peak around 2020.
The IEA sees carbon reductions coming mainly through higher efficiency
Developed countries, which it defines as those in the OECD and/or EU, will have to slash energy-related emissions by 17% in the next 11 years and by 50% by 2030.
Other major emitters such as China, India and Brazil would have to keep the rise in their emissions to 14% above current levels by 2030.
Countries in earlier stages of development would be able to increase their greenhouse gas output.
Globally, clean energy technologies would expand rapidly.
In the decade after 2020, the IEA's prescription includes a threefold expansion of nuclear power, a fourfold growth in the renewables sector and a 14-fold expansion of clean coal technologies.
The cost of this transformation would be $10 trillion between 2010 and 2030, the agency says - but improving energy efficiency would save virtually the same amount.
Bangkok heat
In a foreword to the report, Yvo de Boer, executive secretary of the UN climate convention (UNFCCC), warned that all of this was contingent on tying up an ambitious global deal during December's UN climate conference in Copenhagen.
"These results should motivate us all to step up efforts to reach an agreement with the requisite ambition," he said.
The IEA says low-carbon avenues would be explored for all walks of life
"The cost of addressing climate change is manageable. The cost of not doing so is unaffordable."
Mr de Boer is currently in Bangkok, chairing a preparatory meeting of officials from governments inside the UN convention.
On Monday, China and Sudan - which chairs the G77/China bloc of primarily developing nations - accused rich countries of trying to "kill off" one of the fundamentals of the Kyoto Protocol - that emission targets should be legally binding in some way.
They accuse western countries such as the US and Australia of wanting to make targets more flexible, which they fear will allow "wriggle room".
The EIA's analysis forms part of its annual World Energy Outlook, and has been released early in order that it can be discussed in the Bangkok talks.
Selected headline figures, including the recession's projected impact on emissions, were made public last month.
Richard.Black-INTERNET@bbc.co.uk
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8292175.stm
The story was taken from the website of BBC News. The copyright reamins with BBC. BBC is not involved with, nor endorse the production of this blog.
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