以下是CNA記者對筆者所為的採訪報導內容，業先後登載於中國時報的英文版旺報(WantChinaTimes)與自由時報的英文版台北時報(TaipeiTimes)，內有記者對筆者與其他學者所做的採訪報導......


http://www.wantchinatimes.com/news-subclass-cnt.aspx?cid=1101&MainCatID=11&id=20110428000089

China and economy the keys to Taiwan presidential race: scholars

CNA and Staff Reporter 2011-04-28 15:28 (GMT+8)

President Ma Ying-jeou can expect a closer presidential race than that of 2008. Picture: President Ma (left) and DPP presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen (right). (Photo/Ji Chi-xiang)

The nine-month race for Taiwan’s presidency unofficially began on Wednesday (Apr. 27) now that the candidates of the country’s two major parties are known. Experts say China policy, economy and voters in central Taiwan hold the keys to next year’s election.

Tsai Ing-wen, chairwoman of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), the main opposition party, won the party’s presidential primary on Wednesday and will compete against President Ma Ying-jeou of the Kuomintang (KMT), who is seeking a second term.

Ma, who won his first term in a landslide victory in 2008 and has forged closer ties with China in historic relaxin of cross-strait tensions, is expected to take the initiative on the issue by criticizing the policy of the DPP, which has in the past held strong anti-China position, said Chen Chao-chien, a political scientist at Taipei’s Ming Chuan University.

Tsai has been ambiguous in her previous comments on China policy and is expected to stick with the strategy because she does not want to scare away independent voters, who have had doubts about the party’s hawkish stance in the past, Chen said.

Meanwhile, Tsai is expected to take the fight to Ma on economic issues, which could be hard for the president to defend given that unemployment, income inequality and inflation are still major concerns for many voters despite booming trade with China, he said.

"It’s almost guaranteed that both candidates will try to leverage their advantages and avoid their disadvantages," he said.

Chen said combining the presidential and legislative elections will favor Ma, who also serves as KMT chairman as legislative candidates will be compelled to appeal to voters to cast ballots for themselves and Ma at the same time, Chen said.

However, Ma cannot expect a repeat of the 2008 election in which he won by more than two million votes. Both Ma and Tsai are popular among urban residents, women and young people, who were viewed as Ma’s strong supporters in the past.

With northern Taiwan voters traditionally favoring the KMT and southern Taiwan strongly supporting the DPP, votes in central Taiwan will be a key in the election, Chen said.

Wang Yeh-li, a political scientist at National Taiwan University, shared a similar view, saying that China policy and the economy will be the main issues in the presidential campaign.

Tsai mentioned her China policy during the DPP primary but did not present concrete policies, Wang said, adding, "She is not likely to be able to maintain her ambiguous strategy in the entire campaign."

While Tsai’s nomination as Taiwan’s first female presidential candidate represents a milestone, Wang argued that Taiwan’s voters might not be ready for a female president "if voters in the US were not ready to accept one."

Wang suspects that the combined election favors the KMT, noting that turnout rates of the past two legislative elections were 58% and 59% respectively while the turnout rate of a presidential election usually surpasses 80%.

"We won’t be able to tell in advance how these 20% of voters cast their votes, " he said.

The DPP faces the immediate challenge of uniting the party after Tsai beat her opponent, former premier Su Tseng-chang, by a small margin in the primary.

Su said previously he would not serve as a vice presidential candidate if he lost the primary but called for supporters to support Tsai in his concession speech on Wednesday afternoon.

It the DPP fails to unify the party and transfer Su’s supporters to Tsai, its campaign in 2012 will suffer.

DPP legislators have suggested that Su run in the legislative elections and vie to become legislative speaker so that the party will be more competitive in the presidential and legislative races.

References

Chen Chao-chien 陳朝建

Wang Yeh-li 王業立

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另外Taipei Times, Sat, Apr 30, 2011 - Page 3

標題為Nine-month race for presidency begins in earnest

Staff Writer, with CNA

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