2005-08-18 06:21:59孫協肯
I HAVE TO START PAYING FOR GASOLINE NOW!!!
Sharp rises in fuel prices are eroding the spending power of consumers, heightening fears that record nominal oil costs may start to slow the global economy
US consumer prices climbed 0.5 per cent last month and 3.2 per cent over the year faster than the 2.7 per cent increase in hourly wages. The increase in headline inflation was driven by a 6.1 per cent jump in gasoline prices, which are now up close to 20 per cent since last year.
The economic impact may be only just beginning: at the start of this month the average price for a gallon was $2.29, according to the Department of Energy. By Monday, it had increased to $2.55.
“This is a significant dent in real disposable incomes and a threat to consumer spending,” said Jullian Jessop, chief international analyst at Capital Economics, a consultancy. Wal-Mart, the world’s largest retailer, warned that it was worried about the effect of higher oil prices as it announced disappointing second-quarter profits. In the UK, transport costs pushed the July consumer prices index up by a higher-than-expected 2.3 per cent the highest since measurements began in 1997. In France, Dominique de Villepin, the prime minister, warned that oil was likely to “remain expensive for years and decades to come”.
In the US, any sign that higher energy prices are feeding through into other prices would be likely to encourage the Federal Reserve to accelerate the pace of monetary tightening. So far, however, there are few indications that this is happening. In July, core inflation excluding volatile food and energy prices was just 0.1 per cent.
Over the last three months, core prices have increased at a 1.6 per cent annualised rate. Economists believe that the Fed would act more decisively only if core inflation showed signs of pushing above 2 per cent and staying there.
“With the economy growing strongly and core inflation under control, the Fed should continue to tighten in quarter point steps into the start of next year,” said Bruce Kasman, head of economics at JPMorgan. The bank is expecting the Fed funds rate to increase from 3.5 per cent to 4.5 per cent by February 2006.
Tuesday’s inflation figures coincided with the release of further evidence of strength in the US housing market.
US builders continued to break ground on new houses at a blistering pace of 2.04m units annualised in July. The number of permits granted for new houses accelerated to an annualised rate of 2.17m the fastest pace in 32 years. “The housing market is red hot,” said Nigel Gault, director of US research at Global Insight, a consultancy. “One has to assume that the Federal Reserve would like to see the housing market start to cool.”
Shifts in the auto sector appear to have exerted a disproportionate influence on economic data in July. Generous discounts by US carmakers as part of an effort to clear inventories helped to hold down core inflation. Meanwhile, carmakers cut production by 2.3 per cent over the month. This helped drag down the growth of industrial production, which rose by just 0.1 per cent in July lower than the 0.5 per cent forecast by economists.
Capacity utilisation a measure of the slack in the economy fell to 79.7 per cent from 79.8 per cent. “This is relatively low for this stage in the economic cycle and should contribute to keeping core inflation low,” said Mr Jessop.
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US consumer prices climbed 0.5 per cent last month and 3.2 per cent over the year faster than the 2.7 per cent increase in hourly wages. The increase in headline inflation was driven by a 6.1 per cent jump in gasoline prices, which are now up close to 20 per cent since last year.
The economic impact may be only just beginning: at the start of this month the average price for a gallon was $2.29, according to the Department of Energy. By Monday, it had increased to $2.55.
“This is a significant dent in real disposable incomes and a threat to consumer spending,” said Jullian Jessop, chief international analyst at Capital Economics, a consultancy. Wal-Mart, the world’s largest retailer, warned that it was worried about the effect of higher oil prices as it announced disappointing second-quarter profits. In the UK, transport costs pushed the July consumer prices index up by a higher-than-expected 2.3 per cent the highest since measurements began in 1997. In France, Dominique de Villepin, the prime minister, warned that oil was likely to “remain expensive for years and decades to come”.
In the US, any sign that higher energy prices are feeding through into other prices would be likely to encourage the Federal Reserve to accelerate the pace of monetary tightening. So far, however, there are few indications that this is happening. In July, core inflation excluding volatile food and energy prices was just 0.1 per cent.
Over the last three months, core prices have increased at a 1.6 per cent annualised rate. Economists believe that the Fed would act more decisively only if core inflation showed signs of pushing above 2 per cent and staying there.
“With the economy growing strongly and core inflation under control, the Fed should continue to tighten in quarter point steps into the start of next year,” said Bruce Kasman, head of economics at JPMorgan. The bank is expecting the Fed funds rate to increase from 3.5 per cent to 4.5 per cent by February 2006.
Tuesday’s inflation figures coincided with the release of further evidence of strength in the US housing market.
US builders continued to break ground on new houses at a blistering pace of 2.04m units annualised in July. The number of permits granted for new houses accelerated to an annualised rate of 2.17m the fastest pace in 32 years. “The housing market is red hot,” said Nigel Gault, director of US research at Global Insight, a consultancy. “One has to assume that the Federal Reserve would like to see the housing market start to cool.”
Shifts in the auto sector appear to have exerted a disproportionate influence on economic data in July. Generous discounts by US carmakers as part of an effort to clear inventories helped to hold down core inflation. Meanwhile, carmakers cut production by 2.3 per cent over the month. This helped drag down the growth of industrial production, which rose by just 0.1 per cent in July lower than the 0.5 per cent forecast by economists.
Capacity utilisation a measure of the slack in the economy fell to 79.7 per cent from 79.8 per cent. “This is relatively low for this stage in the economic cycle and should contribute to keeping core inflation low,” said Mr Jessop.
如果你全部唸完, 算你屌.