广交会 （CantonFair）从外需到内需的转变

其实从上一次交易会开始，好多外向型企业都受到打击，而且定单还特别惨淡~~~~

不过，要从外需到内需是需要一个十分慢长的时间

1：社会财富是否可以SHARE到每个人身上

就如图片，人要有钱了才可以去消费，而消费的提前是他们有保障

如果你不用供楼，社保，父母，孩子~~~的负担。那你一定可以放心消费，就如学生。但社会上很多人都要对房子，父母，孩子~~~~负责，或者有更多需要用钱的地方。而且他们又没有充分的社会保障，那怎么有钱消费呢？所以人民的消费只是停留在基本的生活开支，而市场只有那“基本的生活开支”又点样会刺激到市场呢？

2：由于工业生产的能力已经到达饱和，甚至过剩。而有钱的人消费力有限（没可能一个人穿一千件衣服吧？而没钱的人就更加不用讲。那没有消费，怎么会有市场呢？没市场，又怎么刺激到经济呢？这是一个很简单的逻辑推理

终合上面的简要的2点，这次证明从外需到内需是需要一个十分慢长的道路。

关于中国的世界工厂之称肯定会被取代是迟早的事情，但问题是会好晚~~~~~

先看看日本的案例

从日本为首的世界工厂转移到中国大概需要35年时间

而从中国到其他国家呢？

我们就用印度和越南来做比较吧

印度的基础工业支持太差了，而且单边发展（软件）

越南的金融体制十分软弱，今次风暴，股市就大概没左70%以上

而建立工厂的条件有很多，人口，土地，社会基建，政策，金融~~~~等支持，不是简单地取代就得。但问题是，我觉得中国的世界工厂不是被取代，而是自己玩死自己，过度的资源开发，人口老年化（大概10年后发生），环境的严重破坏，人民价值观的转变~~~~~。都会是这个世界工厂需要面对和思考的难题~~~

引用我的论文在个简单的分析：

In modern society, most of people will work in factory or company. If the social economy has a trouble (financial crisis) that it will affects whole factories or companies of society. After that, these factories or companies will reduce the stafftrimmer. The unemployment of people will direct to affect their family finance. As a result, the financial problems of family will bring another problem of family. For example, they do not have any money to buy food and clothes, pay the bills of house and so on. It affects the live of family members. Therefore, it is a very strong relationship of function between family and society.             

To further explain the relationship of function between family and society that it likes 'personal troubles' (the financial problems of family) and 'public issues' (financial crisis). According to Mills considers that "When people cherish some set of values and do not feel any threat to them, they experience well-being. When they cherish values but do feel them to be threatened, they experience a crisis either as a personal trouble or as a public issue. And if all their values seem involved, they feel the total threat of panic" (Mills, 1959:11). To be clear about this viewpoint, "personal troubles" and "public issues", have a strong relationship with each other. For example, the relationship between financial problems of family and financial crisis are that the financial crisis affects family, such as the unemployment of people. This is social action or 'public issues'. However, families will give a reaction to society. For example, the high unemployment per cent will make the low purchasing power of families that it is a reaction from family to society. Although, there are many factors to structure the problem of economic system or financial crisis, the low purchasing power of family is a main factor to affect the economy of society. To sum up, the public issue will affect personal troubles. Nevertheless, when the many same personal troubles (the financial problems of families) together that it is a reaction of family to affect public issue. 

PS：

尽管分析真的很简单，但复杂的经济理论也是从简单开始。希望可以给读者带来新的感觉和更多东西的分享。