2004-09-12 11:30:40Lawrence
熱帶風暴 海馬 最新情況
海馬在過去12小時在基隆以東採取東北偏北轉西北偏北的移動途徑移動,現(早上10時)已移至台北東北方約70公里(25.5N 121.9E)
JTWC終於發出TCFA,但指出海馬並非是一個熱帶氣旋,仍是副熱帶氣旋,
因此未能發出熱帶氣旋警告.
WTPN21 PGTW 111900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/111851ZSEP2004//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 23.9N4 122.2E7 TO 28.3N3 122.2E7
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME DUE
TO THE SUB-TROPICAL NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE
ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY, SYNOPTIC DATA AND
RADAR DATA AT 111730Z3 INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 24.2N8 122.2E7. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 23.6N1
122.1E6, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.2N8 122.2E7, APPROXIMATELY 55 NM
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS EMBEDDED IN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OFF
THE COAST OF CHINA. RECENT QUIKSCAT IMAGERY INDICATES AN ELONGATED
WIND FIELD WITH 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS. SATELLITE ANALYSIS INDICATES
SUB-TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS MEASURING 30 TO 35 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE BUT THERE IS A STRONG VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1000 MB. GIVEN THE SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY THAT THE LLCC MAY DISENGAGE FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND BECOME FULLY TROPICAL IN NATURE, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS BEING UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
121900Z3.//
JTWC終於發出TCFA,但指出海馬並非是一個熱帶氣旋,仍是副熱帶氣旋,
因此未能發出熱帶氣旋警告.
WTPN21 PGTW 111900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/111851ZSEP2004//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 23.9N4 122.2E7 TO 28.3N3 122.2E7
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME DUE
TO THE SUB-TROPICAL NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE
ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY, SYNOPTIC DATA AND
RADAR DATA AT 111730Z3 INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 24.2N8 122.2E7. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 23.6N1
122.1E6, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.2N8 122.2E7, APPROXIMATELY 55 NM
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS EMBEDDED IN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OFF
THE COAST OF CHINA. RECENT QUIKSCAT IMAGERY INDICATES AN ELONGATED
WIND FIELD WITH 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS. SATELLITE ANALYSIS INDICATES
SUB-TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS MEASURING 30 TO 35 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE BUT THERE IS A STRONG VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1000 MB. GIVEN THE SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY THAT THE LLCC MAY DISENGAGE FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND BECOME FULLY TROPICAL IN NATURE, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS BEING UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
121900Z3.//