首席科学家曾光：北京新冠感染人数近1800万 全国感染者超6亿

The rapid spread of the new coronavirus in China after the opening on 7 December was like a hurricane, exceeding the perception of all experts at home and abroad. The rate of infection in 20 days exceeded the rate of infection in all countries worldwide for three years, which was truly unprecedented, and it was difficult to predict how the future would actually develop. 

Zeng Guang, 77, former chief scientist of epidemiology at the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention and a renowned epidemiologist, said in an interview on the 29th that there are no precise statistics available and estimated that the new coronavirus in Beijing may have exceeded 80% by now. Based on the current resident population of about 22 million in Beijing, the number of infected people in Beijing now is 17.6 million, or nearly 18 million.

It should be said that this estimate by Mr. Zeng Guang is relatively objective, and since he has retired, he dares to make such a bold estimate. From my observations in Beijing, the infection rate of all the employees in the surrounding units I know is over 90%, and many of them are already close to 100%. The few people around me who were not infected a week ago are mostly positive this week, and the ones who are still going strong and asymptomatic are really the only ones left. So the odds are that the number of infections is over 18 million. 

What surprises me most is that relatives in several southern provinces, who didn't feel it a week ago, have suddenly become positive this week, as have their surroundings, and there is a sudden spate of infections. This is what makes this hurricane Omicron in China so unique and frightening. It is like a poisonous wind blowing through the country, and the people are falling in pieces, with fever, aches and coughs. 

As testing is no longer done and the government has not established a network of antigenic self-tests for reporting, there are now no basically accurate statistics, and many people are making predictions with the help of internet data and models. From the various predictions published online, the more consistent conclusion is that the vast majority of cities across the country have now reached their peak, with infection rates exceeding 50%, and some cities even exceeding 90%, with a comprehensive average estimate that the national The combined average estimate is that the national infection rate has exceeded 40%, which means that the number of infected people in the country is at least 560 million, approaching or even exceeding 600 million. 

Compare this to the National Health Commission meeting on the 21st, which estimated the number of infected people nationwide at 248 million on the 20th, with an infection rate of 17.63%. The following 10 days are when the rate of infection accelerates everywhere, with most cities reaching their peak during these 10 days, so the projection of an infection rate of over 40% and 600 million infected on the 30th is not too high and is more realistic. 

Hospitals and crematoriums are now full, and even medical and funeral resources in some third and fourth tier cities are facing a huge impact, so much so that some people are now facing the plight of "no place to die", as they put it. Indeed this unprecedented hurricane of the new coronavirus is bringing an unprecedented impact to 1.4 billion Chinese people, and everyone is facing a severe test. 

It is important to note that since the hurricane spread of Omicron is unprecedented in history, it is beyond the scope of human theories and experience in infectious diseases, or it has overturned human understanding of infectious diseases in the past. We can only take one step at a time and see what happens.

Zeng Guang illustrated this point in an interview, saying that in the past our past experience with the spread of respiratory epidemics, the first wave of the epidemic usually infected no more than 30% of the population, then came the second and third waves, the latter two waves would not be stronger than the first, but I have not encountered the first wave of infection coming on strong, even quickly exceeding 50%, 60%, 70% or even 80%. 

He believes that there are three main factors that explain why the spread in Beijing is so aggressive: one is that Beijing is dominated by the Omicron BF7 strain, which is by far the most virulent strain in terms of transmission rate. Another factor is the climate, because after December is the coldest season, when the respiratory tract is drier and people gather more indoors, which is most likely to cause the spread of respiratory diseases. There may also be other respiratory infections in the mix, such as influenza, which has also emerged as a mutant strain, and the rate of influenza outbreaks in the north has increased since winter. The combination of these factors has brought us to the storm of the New Crown Omicron, which has indeed come on very quickly and is progressing faster than we could have imagined. 

We knew the seriousness of this outbreak when it spread hurricane-force in Beijing and across the country, beyond the existing knowledge and imagination of all medical experts. The first wave of transmission infected 90%, or even 100% of the population within 1 month, so is there a second or third wave, and will people have to be infected several times over? These are all unknowns that no one can answer right now.