泰國的政治因為都市中產階級及鄉村人口的意識分裂，導致民主陷入困境。民主選出的泰國領導者，未能獲得都市中產階級的認同，這樣的分割已經形成社會的分裂。這和台灣的情形也有點類似，雖然切割的因素不同。

Coup fears grow as Bangkok boils
By Seth Mydans International Herald Tribune
Monday, October 20, 2008

Bangkok was on edge this weekend after the army chief told the prime minister on nationwide television that he must resign and the prime minister  -  in office for just a month  -  said he was too busy to step down.


The demand by the army chief, General Anupong Paochinda, came Thursday, when he blamed the government for a violent crackdown on protesters and said, "You cannot be above the pools of blood."


His words raised worries of a military coup. But Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat brushed them aside, saying he still had a job to do, and turned his attention to Thailand's other, simultaneous crisis, the threat of  a border war with Cambodia.


Pressure has been growing in Thailand since protesters barricaded the prime minister's office nearly two months ago, forcing the government to conduct its business in Bangkok's former international airport.


As the demonstrations continue, the divisions in society seem to be deepening and the mood seems more confrontational and angry.


On the surface, Bangkok appears unruffled. Office workers crowd the lunchtime food stalls, monks make their morning rounds, traffic sits and waits for the long red lights to change. Monsoon rains sweep through the city, then stop.


But dozens of interviews around the city in recent days, as well as in the countryside, suggest that even if the political confrontation is resolved, the underlying social and political tensions are likely to continue.


"The country is split right down the middle," said Wiriya Sungkhaniyom, an editor and translator. "I'm surprised at all the passion. I didn't realize that we were capable of such strong feelings. We are known for having short memories and prefer to go along and get along."


In a culture that prizes calm and accommodation, where even in traffic jams, drivers rarely honk their horns, people are speaking more vehemently these days, and in louder voices, and are showing less tolerance for opposing views.


A woman at a music shop who is furious with the demonstrators said,       "If you aren't with them, you're bad  -  you're a bad person. Whatever the other side does, even the littlest thing, is just wrong, wrong, wrong. I hate them."


She said she was afraid to give her name because, she said, "they think they can do anything. They think they are above the law."


A colleague tried to quiet her but she only raised her voice. "I have a friend," she said, "a friend of more than 20 years, she doesn't talk to me. She says, 'You don't know anything!"'


At the moment, there seems to be no clear resolution of the political crisis or of divisions like these.


Anupong, the army commander, has said he does not want to stage a  coup because it would only create new problems. Other possible scenarios  seem no more likely to bring peace  -  the prime minister's resignation, a new election or a violent showdown in the streets between the  anti-government protesters and government supporters who have gathered not far away.


The suppression by the police of an anti-government demonstration outside Parliament on Oct. 7 that killed two people and injured nearly 500 has only fired the anger of the protesters and given them a symbolic focus.


On Friday, 3,000 protesters trooped through the city's high-rise business center and its nearby red-light district, handing out thousands of video discs with bloody scenes of the crackdown.


In its broadest sense, Thailand's struggle pits the mostly rural poor against an established urban elite and middle class who feel threatened by their rising political power.


The leaders of the protests, an anti-democratic group called the People's Alliance for Democracy, or PAD, represent that establishment. But the protests have become a vehicle for a range of grievances, and the city at large has fragmented into bitterly divided camps.


The issues are personalized, pitting supporters against opponents of former Prime Minster Thaksin Shinawatra, who was ousted in a coup two years ago but remains a powerful, polarizing force from his self-imposed exile in London.


During six years in office, Thaksin courted the rural poor with populist policies and forged a strong political base that continues to keep his supporters in office. The PAD wants to dilute their electoral power by introducing a mostly appointed legislature.


As they spread through the city, the fault lines of the confrontation grow more complex, fragmenting campuses and workplaces, straining friendships and dividing families, even in some cases turning husbands and wives against each other.


"You have to be careful when you talk to people," said Samran Chana, 43, a motorcycle taxi driver who is used to talking with everybody. "Thailand is divided. You might be sitting and drinking with some people, and they end up shouting at each other."


Duan Maringrot, 57, owner of the Louk Pla Noodle Shop on a narrow lane near the business district, says she closes up every day at 4 p.m. to  attend the demonstration.


Behind the cash register she keeps a yellow shirt, a plastic clapper to cheer the speeches and a yellow headband that reads, in English, "I love the King."


If she hears a customer taking the government's side, she said, "I won't sell anything to them, and if anyone from the government comes in I won't serve them."


In the past, when crises descended into bloodshed, the highly revered monarch, King Bhumibol Aduljadej, has stepped forward to calm the turmoil. He has no direct political role, but his moral power is enough to bring protest leaders and generals crawling to his feet.


Last week, Queen Sirikit, his wife, took the unusual step of attending the cremation of a commoner, a young woman named Angkhana Radappanyawut who died in the recent clash with the police. Her action seemed to lend royal backing to the anti-government protest, although the workings of the palace are hidden in secrecy.


The king so far has remained silent.


"At the end he'll have to step in and say something," said Charupa Suthikorn, 40, who owns a toy shop, as she petted a fluffy pomeranian dog. "I am waiting to see how he will resolve this. If there is real violence, the king will have to do something.


"It's like a father looking after his children. 'I want it like this.' 'No, I want it my way.' If the children don't stop arguing, the father will have to step in."


Political turmoil has unsettled Thailand for three years, since a series of anti-government protests began. They paved the way for the coup two years ago against Thaksin, and they resumed this year when Thaksin's supporters were returned to power in a democratic election.


The first pro-Thaksin prime minister, Samak Sundaravej, was forced to step down a month ago when a court found him guilty of accepting pay for appearing on cooking shows.


The governing party replaced him with Somchai, just as tensions with Cambodia rose over rights to a 900-year-old temple on the border. A clash last week killed two Cambodian soldiers and wounded several on both sides.


The continuing political disarray has wearied many people here, and one of the strongest emotions among many people seems to be a wish that it would all just go away.


But it seems that even these people are not wholly immune to the passions of the moment.


"I'm tired of the political situation," said Peeramon Chomdhavat, 37, a costume designer and choreographer. "I just follow along and see what they are doing and hope that things will be better. And I hate Thaksin."