Chinese missile test heightened threat to Taiwan, study says

The Associated Press
Tuesday, April 10, 2007

WASHINGTON: The antisatellite missile test China conducted in January increased the country’s military threat to Taiwan by demonstrating a limited ability to blind U.S. satellites that would be deployed in defense of the island, according to a report released Tuesday.

"The test is a vivid example of how China’s emerging military capabilities will complicate the strategic environment confronting U.S. forces for decades to come," the study said.

The report was sponsored by the Council on Foreign Relations, an independent private research group based in New York. It is titled "U.S.-China Relations: An Affirmative Agenda, A Responsible Course."

In the January test, China used a missile to destroy one of its own old weather satellites in low-Earth polar orbit. It was the first time China had successfully tested an antisatellite system. Three months after the test, the report stated, China’s motives are unclear.

China waited almost two weeks before publicly acknowledging the test. "China opposes the weaponization of space and any arms race," a spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry said in January. China had "never participated and will never participate in any arms race in outer space," he added.

"The test is not targeted at any country and will not threaten any country," the spokesman said.

While China can damage Taiwan with missiles, the study stated, "it can only take and hold Taiwan if it can win and sustain control of the space, air and waters around Taiwan - a difficult task without U.S. intervention, and nearly impossible should the United States intervene in a China-Taiwan war."

Co-chairs for the report were Carla Hills, a former U.S. trade representative, and Dennis Blair, former president and CEO of the Institute for Defense Analyses, a federally funded research center.

The report stated that China is also developing strategies to protect its growing global interests, the mere existence of which, the authors wrote, pose challenges for the United States.

"China does not need to surpass the United States, or even catch up with the United States, in order to complicate U.S. defense planning or influence U.S. decision-making in the event of a crisis in the Taiwan Strait or elsewhere," the study stated.

However, the report noted that there is no evidence to support the notion that China will become a military competitor to the United States by 2030.

"By virtue of its heritage and experience, its equipment and level of technology, its personnel and the resources it spends, the United States enjoys space, air and naval superiority over China," the report stated.

When China’s conduct is at odds with the vital interests of the United States, the United States must be prepared to defend itself with all the elements of its national power - "adherence to its ideals of human rights, the rule of law and representative government, diplomatic power and influence, economic strength and dynamism, and military capabilities," the study’s authors wrote.