2006-07-06 10:02:23globalist
亞洲國家對北韓試射飛彈不能團結以對(紐時)
北韓試射飛彈一事，造成東亞地區的緊張，其中日本反應最激烈，立即停止雙方唯一的船航線，並且揚言此事非同小可，勢必採取實質而且重大的反應。部份人士認為，日本可能會重提發展核武，當然已經醞釀已久的建立正式的軍事力量，修改和平憲法(防衛性武力)、提升國防部在內閣的位階等，這些呼聲更高、更具正當性。
中國及南韓明顯在這次最受挫，因為這兩個國家最支持北韓，而且認為可以用外交手段限制北韓的威脅舉動，然而，雖然此二國頗為尷尬，但是仍不改立場，也不大可能採取經濟裁制的動作來報復，因為近年來他們和北韓的經濟往來極為密切，難以對北韓用經濟制裁的方式回應，另一方面，他們也擔心北韓情勢惡化所帶來的難民潮等問題，會立即衝擊到二國。因此，他們還是希望繼續以談判或合作的方式來影響北韓。
News Analysis: Asia is divided over approach to North Korea
By Norimitsu Onishi and Choe Sang-Hun
Published: July 5, 2006
lthough Japan, South Korea and China condemned the North Korean missile tests on Wednesday, each nation takes different approaches to the Communist regime that cannot easily be bridged.
With the military exercise, North Korea scoffed at stern warnings from Washington and Tokyo, which favor a tougher line, and it embarrassed Seoul and Beijing, which have used incentives to lure the North out of isolation.
Japan took the hardest line, saying it was considering imposing sanctions, possibly cutting off a significant source of cash for the North by cracking down on money transfers from Japan. It also suspended for six months a North Korean ferry service that is the only regular link between Japan and the North.
"We will consider every type of sanctions possible," said Shinzo Abe, Japan’s chief cabinet secretary and a leading candidate to succeed Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, who will retire in September.
Officials in Seoul indicated that they would withhold 500,000 tons of rice and 100,000 tons of fertilizer the North has sought in aid this year. South Korea had already delivered 350,000 tons of fertilizer this year.
But officials in Japan made it clear that they would maintain basic efforts to engage North Korea through economic cooperation, a policy exemplified by a joint industrial complex in the North Korean city of Gaeseong.
China, the North’s main ally, took the softest line of the three regional powers, calling for calm on all sides. "We are seriously concerned about the events that have occurred," Liu Jianchao, a Foreign Ministry spokesman, said in a statement on the ministry’s Web site. "We hope that all sides will maintain calm and restrained, and do things conducive to the peace and stability of the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia."
Japan toughened its stance after North Korea launched a mid-range missile, the Taepodong-1, over its territory in 1998. Experts said the Wednesday launchings, and North Korea’s growing defiance in the face of international condemnation, will harden Japan’s position further.
"This time, it’s more serious than in 1998," said Yasunori Sone, a professor of politics at Keio University in Tokyo. "North Korea is challenging everybody this time, even China and South Korea. I think the consequences in Japan will be even greater."
The rising threat from the North, experts said, will probably help Japan’s political leadership persuade the population of the need to strengthen military ties with the United States, transform Japan’s Self-Defense Forces into a full- fledged military and eventually revise its pacifist Constitution.
Changes like those could strain Tokyo’s relations with South Korea and China, which suffered under Japanese militarism and remain sensitive to any signs of its revival. Disputes with China and South Korea over territory and Koizumi’s annual visits to a shrine where Japanese war criminals are buried have already undermined Japanese influence in the region, said Kiichi Fujiwara, a professor of international relations at the University of Tokyo.
"Our relations with South Korea and China are at their worst, and without their support we can’t do anything against North Korea," Fujiwara said.
It was unlikely, experts said, that China and South Korea would agree to sanctions. Both countries have increased their economic activities with the North in recent years, partly to prevent it from collapsing and destabilizing the region, and partly to encourage it to adopt economic reforms.
Yoon Duk Min, a regional security specialist at the government-affiliated Institute for Foreign Affairs and National Security in Seoul, said that the South Korean government would adopt a relatively tough stance toward the North in the short term, but will probably resume its engagement policy later.
A consensus has taken root in the South that a conflict with the North should be avoided at all costs and that improving relations remains the only feasible option even if that causes difficulties in the South’s alliance with the United States.
China faces a different set of pressures. It has encouraged deep engagement with North Korea in recent years. President Hu Jintao and Kim Jong Il, the North Korean leader, have exchanged state visits, and China has increased fuel and food shipments. Beijing also has tried to persuade the North to embrace its model of economic change and openness to the outside world.
But the missile firings caught China off guard, coming just as it was undertaking a diplomatic mission to forestall the test and restart six-nation nuclear negotiations. Analysts said the tests were a slap in the face for Beijing, although many expected China to continue to seek middle ground between the North and the United States and Japan.
Norimitsu Onishi reported for The New York Times. Choe Sang-Hun reported for the International Herald Tribune. Joseph Kahn of The Times contributed from Beijing.
中國及南韓明顯在這次最受挫，因為這兩個國家最支持北韓，而且認為可以用外交手段限制北韓的威脅舉動，然而，雖然此二國頗為尷尬，但是仍不改立場，也不大可能採取經濟裁制的動作來報復，因為近年來他們和北韓的經濟往來極為密切，難以對北韓用經濟制裁的方式回應，另一方面，他們也擔心北韓情勢惡化所帶來的難民潮等問題，會立即衝擊到二國。因此，他們還是希望繼續以談判或合作的方式來影響北韓。
News Analysis: Asia is divided over approach to North Korea
By Norimitsu Onishi and Choe Sang-Hun
Published: July 5, 2006
lthough Japan, South Korea and China condemned the North Korean missile tests on Wednesday, each nation takes different approaches to the Communist regime that cannot easily be bridged.
With the military exercise, North Korea scoffed at stern warnings from Washington and Tokyo, which favor a tougher line, and it embarrassed Seoul and Beijing, which have used incentives to lure the North out of isolation.
Japan took the hardest line, saying it was considering imposing sanctions, possibly cutting off a significant source of cash for the North by cracking down on money transfers from Japan. It also suspended for six months a North Korean ferry service that is the only regular link between Japan and the North.
"We will consider every type of sanctions possible," said Shinzo Abe, Japan’s chief cabinet secretary and a leading candidate to succeed Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, who will retire in September.
Officials in Seoul indicated that they would withhold 500,000 tons of rice and 100,000 tons of fertilizer the North has sought in aid this year. South Korea had already delivered 350,000 tons of fertilizer this year.
But officials in Japan made it clear that they would maintain basic efforts to engage North Korea through economic cooperation, a policy exemplified by a joint industrial complex in the North Korean city of Gaeseong.
China, the North’s main ally, took the softest line of the three regional powers, calling for calm on all sides. "We are seriously concerned about the events that have occurred," Liu Jianchao, a Foreign Ministry spokesman, said in a statement on the ministry’s Web site. "We hope that all sides will maintain calm and restrained, and do things conducive to the peace and stability of the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia."
Japan toughened its stance after North Korea launched a mid-range missile, the Taepodong-1, over its territory in 1998. Experts said the Wednesday launchings, and North Korea’s growing defiance in the face of international condemnation, will harden Japan’s position further.
"This time, it’s more serious than in 1998," said Yasunori Sone, a professor of politics at Keio University in Tokyo. "North Korea is challenging everybody this time, even China and South Korea. I think the consequences in Japan will be even greater."
The rising threat from the North, experts said, will probably help Japan’s political leadership persuade the population of the need to strengthen military ties with the United States, transform Japan’s Self-Defense Forces into a full- fledged military and eventually revise its pacifist Constitution.
Changes like those could strain Tokyo’s relations with South Korea and China, which suffered under Japanese militarism and remain sensitive to any signs of its revival. Disputes with China and South Korea over territory and Koizumi’s annual visits to a shrine where Japanese war criminals are buried have already undermined Japanese influence in the region, said Kiichi Fujiwara, a professor of international relations at the University of Tokyo.
"Our relations with South Korea and China are at their worst, and without their support we can’t do anything against North Korea," Fujiwara said.
It was unlikely, experts said, that China and South Korea would agree to sanctions. Both countries have increased their economic activities with the North in recent years, partly to prevent it from collapsing and destabilizing the region, and partly to encourage it to adopt economic reforms.
Yoon Duk Min, a regional security specialist at the government-affiliated Institute for Foreign Affairs and National Security in Seoul, said that the South Korean government would adopt a relatively tough stance toward the North in the short term, but will probably resume its engagement policy later.
A consensus has taken root in the South that a conflict with the North should be avoided at all costs and that improving relations remains the only feasible option even if that causes difficulties in the South’s alliance with the United States.
China faces a different set of pressures. It has encouraged deep engagement with North Korea in recent years. President Hu Jintao and Kim Jong Il, the North Korean leader, have exchanged state visits, and China has increased fuel and food shipments. Beijing also has tried to persuade the North to embrace its model of economic change and openness to the outside world.
But the missile firings caught China off guard, coming just as it was undertaking a diplomatic mission to forestall the test and restart six-nation nuclear negotiations. Analysts said the tests were a slap in the face for Beijing, although many expected China to continue to seek middle ground between the North and the United States and Japan.
Norimitsu Onishi reported for The New York Times. Choe Sang-Hun reported for the International Herald Tribune. Joseph Kahn of The Times contributed from Beijing.