辛苦完成的作業，國際時事真的很複雜呀.........

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It is unusual to see two leaders of adversaries Turkey and Armenia peacefully coming to an understanding. Although this should be reached by underground agreement of multi-forces, there seems a hope of putting an end to the deep hostility of these two countries.

Historical antagonism

  The tragedy of genocide was beginning from the eve of World War I; there were over 1.5 million Armenian who were killed by the declining Ottoman Empire. There were three reasons that the Turkeys attempted to do this genocide. First, the conflict between different religious: The Kingdom of Armenia was the first state to adopt Christianity as its religion in the early years of the 4^th century. However, Armenia was surrounded with Turkey, Azerbaijan and Iran believed in Islamism. Second, the hostility of two races: As the national aphorism goes “one country, one culture.” Armenian has sought for freedom though they were threatened by Ottoman Empire since 14^th century. The empire had been declining since 20^th century, and the government was too lack to repress the rebellion of Armenia fighting for supremacy. Turkey intended to get a lot of land and wealth by massacring Armenian was disloyal. Third, the inclination of independence: Long term of persecution and massacre from Turkey invoked the strong emotion of independence. Even though the several revolutions ended in failure, Armenian has resisted the tyranny till now.

  These two forces had been hostile and fought to each other for hundreds of years. Nevertheless, they has reconciled and established diplomatic relations on Oct, 10^th 2009.

Forces intervention

  Impoverished Armenia not only hugs the southern tip of the tinderbox Caucasus region that lies between the Caspian and Black seas but also holds the logistic hub of oil and gas in these regions. Western countries try to establish a new transporting pipe from Caspian seas to Turkey to get out of the controlling of Russia. The pipe could reach the shortest distance through Azerbaijan and Armenia.

The United State is one of the most important pushers of the reconciliation. To impede Iran and Russia, Turkey was roped by U.S. in the conflict that provided the Incirlik air base was a crucial supply route for American forces in Iraq in 2003. The peace between Turkey and Armenia seems valuable and is pursued by lots of international forces.  

Bilateral benefit

  Effectively transporting oil and gas from Caspian seas is the main motive of the reconciliation. Both of them can get the benefit of the logistic location. On the one hand, the economy of Armenia was blocked by Turkey and Azerbaijan when Armenia being independent. However, the trade cost of transporting decreased about 10 to 20% after the border being opened that actually promoted the export from Armenia to Turkey. On the other hand, the reconciliation reliefs the pressure of condemnation of massacre that helped Turkey getting the ratification of entering European Union (EU).

  As the above statement, the adversaries is tending to solving problems in the past but also developing together in the future.

Balance of leverage

  The peace does not come easily, and no expiry date can be sure. The distribution of oil-and-gas resource is getting balance by the surface reconciliation. At the same time, is the genocide truly forgotten by Armenian? There are some domestic leftists extremely boycotting the government even the powerful Armenian community centered in Los Angeles still presses for years for American Congress to condemn the genocide. Besides, Turkish considered that the acknowledgement of the genocide is an insult to them. Moreover, the economy has been tormented with the deadlock of diplomatic relations. For instance, EU postponed the entering application of Turkey due to the instable international relations with the genocide.

Both the leaders of these two countries are facing the domestic and foreign pressure. Although the situation is hard, they finally come to an agreement to establish a win-win one. They realize that this is the only way to hold the chips on the desk.