紐約時報中文版-世界上最重要的地方：台灣

Pound for Pound, Taiwan Is the

Most Important Place in the World

台灣積體電路製造股份有限公司在台灣台南的辦公樓。 AN RONG XU FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

THE COLD WAR BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND THE SOVIET UNION PERPETUALLY THREATENED TO SPARK CONFLICT IN NATIONS ALL OVER THE WORLD, INCLUDING BATTLES OVER THE CONTROL OF A VAST ARRAY OF NATURAL AND INDUSTRIAL RESOURCES. THE NEW COLD WAR, BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND CHINA, IS INCREASINGLY FOCUSED ON ACCESS TO JUST ONE INDUSTRY IN ONE PLACE: COMPUTER CHIPS MADE IN TAIWAN.

美國與蘇聯的冷戰一直給世界各國帶來點燃衝突的威脅，包括對大量自然和工業資源的爭奪。而美國與中國的新冷戰越來越注重對某一個地方的一項產業的利用：那就是台灣製造的計算機晶片。

OVER THE PAST YEAR, TAIWAN HAS TAKEN A LEAD IN THE RACE TO BUILD THINNER, FASTER AND MORE POWERFUL CHIPS, OR SEMICONDUCTORS. ITS FASTEST CHIPS ARE THE CRITICAL BUILDING BLOCKS OF RAPIDLY EVOLVING DIGITAL INDUSTRIES LIKE ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND HIGH-SPEED COMPUTING. THE THINNEST CHIPS WILL BE POWERING THE COMING “INTERNET OF THINGS,” IN WHICH HOMES, CARS, APPLIANCES AND EVEN CLOTHES WILL CONNECT TO SMARTPHONES AND VOICE-ACTIVATED SPEAKERS OVER 5G NETWORKS.

過去一年，台灣已經在製造更薄、更快、更強大晶片（或半導體）的競賽中處於領先地位。其速度最快的晶片是人工智慧和高速計算等快速發展的數字產業的關鍵組成部分。最薄的晶片會為即將到來的物聯網提供動力，在物聯網中，家庭、汽車、電器甚至衣物都將通過5G網路與智慧型手機和聲控音箱相連。

AS OF NOW, ANY COUNTRY LOOKING TO DOMINATE THE DIGITAL FUTURE HAS TO BUY THESE SUPERFAST, ULTRATHIN CHIPS FROM EITHER TAIWAN OR SOUTH KOREA. AND TAIWAN HAS THE EDGE IN BOTH TECHNOLOGY AND MARKET POWER. IT IS A SMALL ISLAND OF JUST 24 MILLION PEOPLE, BUT IT IS AT THE CENTER OF THE BATTLE FOR GLOBAL TECHNOLOGICAL SUPREMACY. POUND FOR POUND, IT IS THE MOST IMPORTANT PLACE IN THE WORLD. AS THE COLD WAR BETWEEN CHINA AND THE UNITED STATES INTENSIFIES, THAT IMPORTANCE WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO GROW.

目前，任何想要主宰數字未來的國家都必須從台灣或韓國購買這些超高速、超薄的晶片。台灣在技術和市場影響力方面都有優勢。這個小島人口只有2400萬，卻處於全球科技霸權爭奪戰的中心。在影響力方面，它就是世界上最重要的地方。隨著中美之間冷戰的加劇，這種重要性只會繼續增長。 AFTER WORLD WAR II, ONLY TWO MAJOR EMERGING ECONOMIES MANAGED TO GROW FASTER THAN 5 PERCENT FOR FIVE DECADES IN A ROW AND TO RISE FROM POVERTY INTO THE RANKS OF DEVELOPED ECONOMIES. ONE WAS TAIWAN, THE OTHER SOUTH KOREA. THEY KEPT ADVANCING UP THE INDUSTRIAL LADDER BY INVESTING MORE HEAVILY IN RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT THAN DID ANY OF THEIR RIVALS AMONG EMERGING ECONOMIES. NOW THEY ARE AMONG THE RESEARCH LEADERS OF THE DEVELOPED ECONOMIC WORLD AS WELL.

第二次世界大戰後，只有兩個主要新興經濟體連續50年的增速超過5%，擺脫貧困進入了發達經濟體行列。一個是台灣，另一個就是韓國。通過對研發的大量投資，它們在工業發展階梯上不斷攀升，始終領先於其他新興經濟體的競爭對手。如今，它們也成了發達經濟體中的科研領導者之一。

HOW DID THEY ACCOMPLISH THIS FEAT? COMPETENT GOVERNMENTS PLAYED A MAJOR ROLE. SOUTH KOREA NURTURED GIANT CONGLOMERATES LIKE SAMSUNG AND HYUNDAI, WHICH EXPORTED CONSUMER PRODUCTS UNDER THEIR OWN BRAND NAMES. TAIWAN CULTIVATED SMALLER COMPANIES FOCUSED ON MAKING PARTS OR ASSEMBLING FINISHED PRODUCTS FOR FOREIGN BRANDS. TODAY THE FLEXIBILITY GOES A LONG WAY TOWARD EXPLAINING ITS SUCCESS.

它們是如何完成這一壯舉的？有能力的政府發揮了重要作用。韓國扶持了三星(SAMSUNG)和現代(HYUNDAI)等大型綜合集團，這些企業都出口自有品牌的消費產品。台灣培育了一些規模較小的企業，專注於為外國品牌製造零部件或組裝成品。如今，這樣的靈活性是它們獲得成功的重要因素。

TAIWAN ALWAYS MANAGED TO STAY NEAR THE CUTTING EDGE, AT FIRST BY BORROWING TECHNOLOGY FROM WESTERN NATIONS. AS EARLY AS THE 1970S, ELECTRONICS HAD REPLACED TEXTILES AS ITS LEADING MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY. THROUGH EVERY PHASE OF THE COMPUTER REVOLUTION, FROM PCS TO SOFTWARE TO THE MOBILE INTERNET, TAIWANESE FACTORIES MANAGED TO RETOOL FAST ENOUGH TO REMAIN IMPORTANT GLOBAL SUPPLIERS.

台灣一直努力走在科技前沿，一開始從西方國家借鑒了技術。早在20世紀70年代，電子產業就取代了紡織業，成為台灣的主要製造業。從個人電腦到軟體再到移動互聯網，在計算機革命的每個階段，台灣工廠都成功進行了足夠快的重組轉型，以保持其全球重要供應商的地位。

INSPIRED BY SILICON VALLEY, TAIWAN’S GOVERNMENT IN 1980 SET UP THE FIRST OF ITS SCIENCE PARKS. EACH PARK WOULD HAVE ITS OWN TECH-FOCUSED UNIVERSITY, AND THE GOVERNMENT OFFERED BONUSES FOR TAIWANESE-BORN ENGINEERS TO RETURN HOME FROM OTHER COUNTRIES TO WORK THERE. MIXING OVERSEAS EXPERIENCE WITH YOUNG LOCAL GRADUATES, THE SCIENCE PARKS BECAME HOTHOUSES FOR ENTREPRENEURIAL START-UPS.

受到矽谷的啟發，台灣政府在1980年建立了第一個科學園區。每個園區都有自己的科技大學，政府還為台灣出生、從其他國家返鄉工作的工程師提供獎金。這些科學園區將有海外經驗的從業者與本地年輕的畢業生融合在一起，成了培育創業的溫室。

A FEW START-UPS WENT ON TO BECOME GIANT COMPANIES, THOUGH STILL RELATIVELY UNKNOWN TO THE GLOBAL PUBLIC. BY THE 2010S A TAIWANESE COMPANY, FOXCONN TECHNOLOGY, WAS ASSEMBLING 40 PERCENT OF THE WORLD’S CONSUMER ELECTRONIC PRODUCTS, USING PLANTS IN ASIA, EUROPE AND LATIN AMERICA. TODAY TAIWANESE COMPANIES ARE MAJOR SUPPLIERS OF A WIDE RANGE OF PARTS — SMARTPHONE LENSES, E-PAPER DISPLAYS — AND THE INDISPENSABLE SUPPLIERS OF COMPUTER CHIPS.

一些初創企業長成了巨頭，儘管對全球公眾來說仍相對不為人知。到2010年代，台灣富士康科技公司(FOXCONN TECHNOLOGY)在亞洲、歐洲和拉丁美洲的工廠組裝了全球40%的消費電子產品。如今，台灣企業是各種零部件——智慧型手機鏡頭、「電子紙」顯示屏——的主要供應商，也是計算機晶片不可或缺的供應商。

ONE OF THE TAIWANESE GOVERNMENT’S EARLY STAR RECRUITS WAS MORRIS CHANG, A GRADUATE OF THE MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY AND A VETERAN OF TEXAS INSTRUMENTS. TASKED WITH BUILDING A SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY, MR. CHANG REVIEWED TAIWAN’S STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES, AND REJECTED THE IDEA OF TRYING TO GO HEAD-TO-HEAD WITH GLOBAL BRANDS LIKE INTEL. INSTEAD, HE BUILT THE WORLD’S FIRST CHIP FOUNDRY, TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURING COMPANY, OR T.S.M.C.

張忠謀是台灣政府早期招募的人才之一，他畢業於麻省理工學院(MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY)，也是得克薩斯儀器公司(TEXAS INSTRUMENTS)的資深員工。肩負著打造半導體產業的任務，張忠謀評估了台灣的優勢與弱點，否決了與英特爾(INTEL)等全球品牌正面交鋒的想法。相反，他建立了世界上第一家晶片代工廠——台灣積體電路製造股份有限公司(TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURING COMPANY)。

Much like the Taiwan contract manufacturers that once made toys and textiles, a “pure foundry” like Mr. Chang’s stayed in the background, cranking out chips for global brands rather than its own devices. Today foundries are a small corner of the $430 billion global chip market, but all of the most advanced chips come from foundries. And two-thirds of foundry production comes out of Taiwan, most of it from T.S.M.C.

就像曾經生產玩具和紡織品的台灣承包製造商一樣，張忠謀創辦的這種「純晶圓代工」廠也留在了幕後，為全球品牌而非自己的設備生產晶片。如今，晶圓代工在價值4300億美元的全球晶片市場中只佔據一個小角落，但所有最先進的晶片都來自這種代工廠。有三分之二的晶圓代工產品產自台灣，大部分都由台積電生產。

Intel fell behind the leaders this year because of production delays. That left only two real competitors standing: Samsung and T.S.M.C. Both introduced five-nanometer chips this year and plan to introduce the first three-nanometer chips in 2022.

由於生產上的滯後，英特爾在今年已經落後於其他行業領頭羊。這就只剩下兩個真正的競爭對手：三星和台積電。他們在今年都推出了5納米晶片，並計劃在2022年推出首個3納米晶片。

Going forward, many tech analysts predict that Taiwan’s business model gives it a clear edge. Most customers prefer a pure foundry that does not compete with them to design chips or build devices, and only Taiwan offers this service. That is a big reason Apple has been switching from Samsung to T.S.M.C. for the processing chips in the iPhone and why Intel is expected to outsource production of its most advanced chips mainly to T.S.M.C.

許多科技分析師預測，未來台灣的商業模式將使其擁有明顯優勢。大多數客戶更喜歡不與他們在晶片設計或設備製造上競爭的純晶圓代工，只有台灣能提供這一服務。這是蘋果(Apple)將iPhone的處理晶片從三星換成台積電的一個重要原因，也是英特爾預計會將其最先進的晶片生產主要外包給台積電的原因。

Taiwan has tried to position itself as the “Switzerland” of chips, a neutral supplier, but it increasingly finds itself at the center of the jousting between China and the United States. U.S. sanctions against China’s leading smartphone maker, Huawei, were designed in part to block Huawei’s access to chips from T.S.M.C. Beijing responded by accelerating a campaign to build its own advanced chip plants on Chinese soil. And the Trump administration countered by inviting T.S.M.C. to build a U.S. chip fabrication plant, which will be in Arizona.

台灣試圖將自己定位為晶片業的「瑞士」，即一個中立的供應商，但它不斷發現自己成為中美爭端的中心。美國對中國領先的智慧型手機製造商華為的制裁，一定程度上就是為了阻止華為獲得台積電製造的晶片。北京的回應，是在中國本土加快建設自己的先進晶片廠。川普政府對此作出反擊，邀請台積電打造一家美國晶片製造廠，地址將設在亞利桑那州。

In this contest, it is not clear which superpower has the upper hand. China still relies more heavily on imports and foreign technology, but the United States is investing less aggressively in local production, and the Arizona plant won’t be nearly big enough to fill the gap. Unlike Taiwan’s other factories, which are scattered worldwide, its chip fabrication plants are concentrated on its home island, just 100 miles off the mainland coast of China. In the event of military conflict or rising tension, U.S. access to those chip fabrication plants could be vulnerable to missile threat or naval blockade.

在這場競賽中，尚不知哪個超級大國將會佔據上風。中國仍然更多依賴進口和外國技術，但美國對本土製造的投資也沒那麼積極，亞利桑那州工廠的規模不足以填補這一缺口。與分散在世界各地的其他台灣工廠不同，台積電的晶片製造廠都集中在距離中國大陸海岸僅100英里遠的本島之上。一旦發生軍事衝突或緊張局勢升級，在導彈威脅或海上封鎖之下，美國與這些晶片製造廠的聯繫可能很脆弱。

Historically, the importance of Taiwan was calculated in geopolitical terms. A small democracy thriving in the shadow of a Communist giant stirred sympathy and support in Washington. Now, as a byproduct of its successful economic model, Taiwan has become a critical link in the global tech supply chain, adding economic weight to the geopolitical calculations. And that weight is likely to increase as the battle for global tech supremacy heats up.

從歷史上看，台灣的重要性有其地緣政治的考量。在共產主義巨人的陰影下蓬勃發展的小型民主政體在華盛頓激起了同情和支持。如今，作為其成功經濟模式的一個副產品，台灣已經成為全球科技供應鏈的關鍵一環，為其地緣政治考量增添了經濟砝碼。隨著全球科技霸權爭奪戰的升溫，這一砝碼的重量可能還會繼續增加。

Ruchir Sharma是摩根士丹利投資管理公司首席全球策略師，著有《The Ten Rules of Successful Nations》一書，他也是一名觀點文章作者。

翻譯：紐約時報中文網

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原始網站：紐約時報中文版-世界上最重要的地方：台灣

Pound for Pound, Taiwan Is the Most Important Place in the World